Civil Wars End in These Countries
MetaculusAPR 2023
Syrian Rebels Launch First Offensive in Years West of Aleppo
Above: A fighter from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) mans a position in the eastern outskirts of the town of Atarib, in Syria's northern province of Aleppo on Nov. 27, 2024, as smoke rises in the distance during clashes with the Syrian army. Image copyright: Abdulaziz Ketaz/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
This military action represents a necessary response to the regime's continuous shelling of northern Syria and aims to facilitate the return of the displaced to their villages. The offensive has broken a period of stagnation in the conflict and demonstrates the opposition's capability to challenge Assad's control.
Narrative B
The rebel offensive, led by a designated terrorist organization, threatens the stability achieved in the region in recent years. This attack violates the 2020 de-escalation agreement between Russia and Turkey, thus necessitating a strong military response to protect civilian areas and government positions.