Russia, Ukraine Exchange Border Strikes After Russian Advance

Russia, Ukraine Exchange Border Strikes After Russian Advance
Above: A drone view of a damaged apartment building following a Russian air strike on May 14, 2024 near Kharkiv, Ukraine. Image copyright: Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is currently on the defensive due to a previous lack of support from Western allies, but that could change thanks to emboldened statements coming out of Europe. Some European officials have even considered sending at least a limited number of troops to defend Kyiv. If NATO as a whole were to agree on this level of solidarity, Russia could be defeated.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has entered Kharkiv quite easily, which, while not an official victory on the ground, could spell defeat within the Western mind. With just a limited number of troops, Russia has captured 100 square kilometers of Ukraine's second most important city — this leaves Kharkiv severely wounded and vulnerable to stronger attacks in the future.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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