Russia Launches Biggest Attack on Ukraine in Months

Russia Launches Biggest Attack on Ukraine in Months
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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While the US under the Biden administration continues to be Ukraine's closest supporter, what Ukraine must understand is that oil prices have a major impact on US elections, and striking Russia's supplies could dramatically change global costs — even despite the sanctions. Having Biden lose the 2024 election over the cost of gas won't help Ukraine achieve its war aims.

Pro-Russia narrative

Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks and thinking they can defeat Russia on the battlefield. The energy infrastructure targets are directly tied to Ukraine's armed forces and command and control. These attacks will stop once a more sober position is reached.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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