Red Sea: Indian Navy Rescues Cargo Ship Crew After Houthi Strike

Red Sea: Indian Navy Rescues Cargo Ship Crew After Houthi Strike
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The Spin

Narrative A

If this conflict between the Houthis and the West doesn't end soon, the world could see another round of inflationary spikes. Just as the COVID-era inflation was finally repairing itself, the costs of shipping from Asia to northern Europe have now increased by 173%, and from Asia to the US by 55%. While we haven't yet seen price hikes similar to the COVID peak, economically devastating inflation could very well be on the horizon.

Narrative B

It's fine to draw parallels with COVID supply chain issues, but it's also important to recognize that shipping bottlenecks at the time were a relatively small part of the problem; the larger issue was decreasing labor participation due to virus fear, which resulted in lower productivity and higher prices. The shipping industry has been significantly hit recently, but don't expect a return to 2021-22. The disruptions caused by the Houthis are manageable.

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