Poll: Haley Narrows Trump Gap to Single Digits in New Hampshire

Poll: Haley Narrows Trump Gap to Single Digits in New Hampshire
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The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

It's no mystery that Haley will face an uphill battle to defeat Trump on the path to the GOP nomination for the White House, but her chances are growing by the day. If she is able to finish second in Iowa, to win in New Hampshire and, at least, to claim a close second in South Carolina, then she will become the only viable alternative to Trump — and there lies the key to her victory.

Pro-Trump narrative

Though a very specific hypothetical scenario in the first three Republican primaries would indeed trigger a race between Trump and Haley, as of today, the former president has double-digit leads over Haley in Iowa, New Hampshire, and even in her home state of South Carolina. Given that those who know her better don't want Haley to win the nomination, Republican primary voters won't make such an error. The GOP nomination still projects to be a cakewalk for the former president.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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