NATO Supports European Patriot Missile Deal

    NATO Supports European Patriot Missile Deal
    Image copyright: Sean Gallup/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    Patriot defensive systems are expensive and, though effective in response to Putin's bombardment of Ukrainian citizens, will not win Ukraine the war. Zelenskyy and Ukraine must receive offensive equipment, such as artillery, fighter jets, and deep strike weapons, if the West is to prevail over the Kremlin. Defensive assets such as the Patriot system are certainly welcome, but will not liberate Ukraine alone.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    While the West continues to send supplies to Ukraine, the volume of such deliveries is decreasing and the weapon stores are drying up, thus handing Russia an inevitable win in its special military operation. Futile support of Ukraine only heightens the risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia, rather than increasing the chance of a victory for the West.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    As a defensive organization, the procurement of non-lethal defensive systems such as the Patriot missile is the furthest that NATO can go to provide security in Europe in light of the war in Ukraine. As the conflict nears its two-year anniversary, NATO's support of European military purchases may provide greater opportunities for allies of Ukraine to free up and allocate further resources to repel Russia's illegal behavior.

    Metaculus Prediction

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