Myanmar Opposition Claims Drone Attacks on Capital

Myanmar Opposition Claims Drone Attacks on Capital
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The Spin

Narrative A

After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden admin and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.

Narrative B

Beside it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.

Metaculus Prediction


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