Israeli Forces Advance in Central Gaza

Israeli Forces Advance in Central Gaza
Above: Israeli tanks move along the border with the Gaza Strip on May 29, 2024 in Southern Israel, Israel. Image copyright: Amir Levy/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. If Hamas is ready to engage constructively, the Israeli government must stand behind the cease-fire plan. Biden is calling time on the war — Netanyahu must seize this moment and stop the fighting.

Pro-Israel narrative

As Israel increasingly limits Hamas' ability to threaten Israel via its terror rockets, Hezbollah is attempting to fill the gap. Though Israel's campaign in Gaza continues to drag on, the military must eventually prioritize the situation on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, and Israel can't afford to have an Iranian proxy army sitting so comfortably on its border.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Though this deal, which is nearly identical to earlier proposals that Hamas has already agreed to, must go through, it's too little too late. Israel has massacred over 35K Palestinians in Gaza, yet it has taken months even to approach a deal due to Israeli intransigence. The only reason this war has continued is because the Biden administration has refused to reel Israel in.

Pro-Iran narrative

Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has many tricks up its sleeve, and it's prepared to defend Lebanon from Israel's genocidal aggression.

Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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