A Dublin Neighborhood at the Sharp End of Ireland’s Election Issues
New York TimesDEC 2024
Exit Poll Shows Three-Way Tie in Irish General Election
Above: Voters in Dublin heading to the polls to elect 'Teachtai Dala' (TDs) to the Dail Eireann, the lower house of parliament, on Nov. 29, 2024. Image copyright: Mostafa Darwish/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
This exit poll stresses what most Irish citizens were already expecting. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will remain in power, and nothing will change except for the third party in the coalition. That's not to say that voters are happy with mainstream politicians, especially as independent candidates have polled quite well.
Narrative B
Forming a new government will be no easy task, with official results and later seats potentially changing the power balance between the three main parties. If the exit poll is accurate, then an unstable coalition of four or more parties may be needed as Social Democrats — the largest among the rest — is unlikely to enter government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.