IAEA: Iran to Expand Nuclear Program

IAEA: Iran to Expand Nuclear Program
Above: Director General of the IAEA Rafael Grossi (L) and head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Muhammad Islami, in Tehran on Nov. 14, 2024. Image copyright: Fatemeh Bahrami/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran plans to install over 6K extra uranium-enriching centrifuges at its Fordow and Natanz facilities in a move the UN watchdog warns would significantly expand its uranium enrichment capabilities.

  • On Thursday, the IAEA's confidential report also claimed that Iran plans to enrich uranium up to 5% purity using eight IR-6 centrifuge cascades recently installed at Fordow, adding to its existing infrastructure of over 10K operating centrifuges.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

The expansion of nuclear capabilities is a legitimate response to Western failures in upholding commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and continued sanctions pressure. The program remains peaceful, and Iran maintains its right to develop nuclear technology for civilian purposes.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's nuclear expansion and hints at doctrine changes represent dangerous escalations that could lead to weapons development. The installation of advanced centrifuges and increased enrichment capabilities — combined with a lack of cooperation with IAEA inspectors — raises serious proliferation concerns.


Metaculus Prediction



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