Haley Drops Out of GOP Primary

Haley Drops Out of GOP Primary
Image copyright: Anna Moneymaker/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Even with Haley out of the way, it's going to be difficult for Trump to get the 90% of Republican voters he's projected to need to win the general election. Many Haley voters didn't express ill will toward Biden, and they could sway the vote by staying home or supporting the president. Trump has his work cut out for him reuniting the party.

Pro-Trump narrative

Haley stuck around so long because her corporate backers wanted her to put a dent in Trump's effort to return to the White House. But the American people saw through her and knew she was more of a turncoat than a viable alternative. Now the former president has a clear path back to the Oval Office.

Democratic narrative

Republicans have made a big mistake. Biden has his flaws, but he beat Trump once and can beat him again. This time around, Biden can take a page from Haley's book in an effort to keep the never-Trump vote from turning to MAGA. For Biden to retain the White House, it'll be important for him to keep up Haley's message that Trump is a dangerous person who could put an end to American democracy.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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