Haiti: Kenya Pauses UN Policing Deployment

Haiti: Kenya Pauses UN Policing Deployment
Image copyright: Donwilson Odhiambo/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Although the Kenyan government's decision is understandable, there's no need to delay the deployment of its police forces. Washington will ensure that a transitional council is set up in the next few days, which will then appoint an interim Prime Minister paving the way for free and fair elections in Haiti. Washington has approved $300M in funding for the security mission and is counting on Kenya to honor its commitment to support Haiti.

Establishment-critical narrative

UN and US-backed troops have been sent to keep the peace in Haiti before, and things only got worse. Not only did these outside forces establish an unelected leader, but they also mistakenly unleashed cholera on the Caribbean state of 11M people. Whether this operation leads to a new transition plan or not, the Haitian government has no ability to regain control of its capital, let alone conduct free elections. History is likely to repeat itself here, meaning the safety and economy of Haiti will deteriorate further.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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