Ireland: Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition Set to Retain Power

Ireland: Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition Set to Retain Power
Above: Prime Minister and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris speaks to the media at Shoreline Leisure Greystones in County Wicklow, Ireland, on Nov. 30, 2024. Image copyright: Niall Carson/Contributor/PA Images via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

This election underscores voters' desire for stability, with Fianna Fáil reclaiming leadership under Micheál Martin's strategic competence and steady governance. In contrast, Sinn Féin's sharp decline reflects its failure to offer credible alternatives, reinforcing Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as the reliable choice to steer Ireland forward, likely with support from Independents.

Narrative B

This election exposes a generational divide and a rightward shift in Irish politics. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael retained power by addressing concerns on migration, free speech, and cultural issues, despite declining dominance. Older generations, who favor the establishment, are keeping it alive, while professionally run right-wing campaigns signal that strategic pragmatism will drive Ireland's gradual rightward shift.

Metaculus Prediction


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