Ex-Tory MP Lee Anderson Defects to Reform UK

Ex-Tory MP Lee Anderson Defects to Reform UK
Image copyright: Leon Neal/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The acquisition of Anderson is a major advance for Reform UK and, despite previous comments criticizing the party, the MP is destined to be warmly received by its supporters. Formerly a symbol of Tory success within the Red Wall, Anderson's defection is yet another nail in the coffin for the Conservatives.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite admitting his words against the London Mayor were clumsy, a refusal to apologize meant the writing was on the wall for Anderson's future as a Tory party member. While polling shows that Reform UK's popularity has had some effect on the performance of the Conservatives, the fact remains that they are effectively a pressure group unlikely to achieve any significant results at the next general election.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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