Australia Will Build Its Biggest Navy Since World War II

Australia Will Build Its Biggest Navy Since World War II
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The Spin

Narrative A

Australia undoubtedly has a major naval problem to solve. From worn-out vessels and spiraling costs of delayed projects to a shortage of manpower, the country must solve a host of issues to be ready for future conflicts. Its mega plan is a step in the right direction, but given chronic personnel shortfalls, there's no certainty that Australia's naval revolution will be a success.

Narrative B

Australia's naval shakeup announcement comes shortly after a defense review last year pointed to a gaping hole in its strategic capabilities. To that extent, the "Australianization" of its capabilities and the expansion of its ship-building muscle is a welcome step by Canberra. It will accelerate Australia's move towards becoming a world-class naval power in the Indo-Pacific, giving its allies more confidence in its capabilities in a dramatically evolving strategic theater.

Metaculus Prediction


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