Zelenskyy Denies Bakhmut Has Fallen, Disputes Wagner Chief's Claims

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The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Bakhmut is located along the E40 highway, which connects Ukraine's second-largest city Kharkiv with Russia's Rostov-on-Don. Russia's capture of Bakhmut will allow it to progress to Ukrainian cities further west and bring Moscow closer to its goal of conquering the entire Donbas region.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Bakhmut's fall is a blow to Ukraine and may give Russia some tactical advantages, but it won't prove decisive to the war's outcome. Putin's forces still face the enormous task of seizing the remaining Donetsk region, which is under firm Ukrainian control.

Narrative C

Though Bakhmut is of little strategic value to Moscow, its capture is the greatest symbolic victory yet for Russia in 15 months of war. Bakhmut's fall could allow Russia to rally international support for a deal that might require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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