Ukrainian Troops Build-Up Near Dnipro River

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Before Hamas attacked Israel, the entire Western world was focused on Zelenskyy and helping him defeat Russia. However, as public support for Ukraine wanes and other global conflicts erupt, it seems that Ukraine's already failing counteroffensive will be left up to Kyiv alone. Neither Europe nor the US actually believes Ukraine can win this war, which is why they've decided to slow their words of encouragement and put the spotlight on a different ally.

Anti-Russia narrative

Moscow has resorted to pretending that Ukraine's counteroffensive isn't working. In fact, Ukraine's Western-supplied anti-tank guns have given forces a stronger impact and longer range, while the efficacy and precision of Ukrainian strikes have improved thanks to high-tech drones. Despite developments elsewhere in the world, Ukraine continues to put up a strong fight.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's true that Ukraine is losing this war, but that's not the fault of Kyiv. The two sides could have reached a peace deal that left Ukraine satisfied during talks in Belarus, talks mediated by Israel, and talks in Istanbul. Unfortunately, the US — which is actually at war with Russia via its Ukrainian proxy — blocked any potential ceasefire. Washington knew from the beginning that Ukraine wouldn't have the equipment or funding to defeat Moscow, but it pushed the nation onto the front lines anyway, resulting in hundreds of thousands of unnecessary casualties.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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