Ukraine Shells Russia's Belgorod Region

Ukraine Shells Russia's Belgorod Region
Image copyright: Vlada Liberova/Libkos via Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia has endured substantial losses in the 20-month-long war in Ukraine, with over 300K casualties reported — numbers that are not only provided by Kyiv's military but are also corroborated by independent analysts and Western intelligence. The disparity in casualties between the two nations suggests Russia is now subjecting its infantrymen to almost certain death.

Pro-Russia narrative

While there certainly have been high casualty numbers on both sides, the idea that Kyiv is outmaneuvering Moscow is just not true. Even Ukraine's so-called "Iron General" admitted this week that, unless the West can provide them with some extraordinary technological advantage, the stalemate of trench warfare will continue — a reality that, although Zelenskly won't admit it, advantages Russia.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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