The Facts
- On Wednesday, in two papers published in the journal Nature, scientists studying the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica said that warm water is reaching weak spots and increasing the rate of melting.
- The research was conducted by sending an underwater robot beneath the glacier's Eastern Ice Shelf to see how, where, and when warm waters are seeping into cracks and crevasses. The subsequent data was used by scientists to determine the remaining life of the glacier.
- Melting of Thwaites currently contributes to about 4% of sea level rise annually, however, it has been nicknamed the "doomsday glacier" due to research suggesting it could collapse within a century, raising global sea levels by two feet. Experts have stated that such a rise could have significant and catastrophic impacts on the world's coastal communities.
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The Spin
Narrative A
The "doomsday glacier" serves as a cork in the bottle that is Antarctica, but the climate changes we face are, predictably, threatening its future. While science has not yet advanced far enough to predict the effect of changing climate patterns in the way meteorologists might predict the weather, this study gives us some idea of the bleak decades ahead for Antarctica if the human species does not adjust its behavior.
Narrative B
Yes, Thwaites is melting, but this state of affairs is not the death sentence that much of the media would have audiences believe. Sensationalized coverage of the "doomsday glacier" put forth fails to account for several factors that contradict predictions of its imminent collapse and the threat of the resulting sea rise. While it's okay for the media to inform the public, it's not acceptable for them to scaremonger about relatively limited risks to people's safety.
Metaculus Prediction
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