Russian Soldier Surrenders to Ukrainian Drone on Bakhmut Battlefield

Image copyright: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Though the Russian army is unlikely to break any time soon, the decline in its morale is becoming clearer by the day, as Ukraine has captured dozens of Russian prisoners of war. By deploying poorly trained soldiers to the meat grinder front line, and threatening to shoot anyone who retreats, Moscow is leaving its troops no choice but to surrender.

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukraine's much-advertised counteroffensive has been a complete fiasco, translating into heavy losses for Kyiv while Moscow holds firm and projects long-term victory without the need to resort to nuclear weapons. Putin looks as comfortable as ever ahead of next Spring's presidential elections, especially amid the failure of the West's isolation strategy.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO