Russia Launches Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Moscow's withdrawal from the nuclear test ban treaty and the launch of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile is the latest stunt to deter Western countries from helping Ukraine resist the invasion. However, the acts reflect Putin's growing frustration at its forces' failure to achieve victory since the Kremlin launched its offensive against Ukraine last February.

Pro-Russia narrative

Firstly, Russia hasn't abandoned its moratorium on nuclear testing. Putin's decision to withdraw from the treaty that outlaws nuclear weapons tests is aimed at bringing Moscow in line with the US, which hasn't ratified the international agreement. Secondly, Russia is simply enhancing its naval power to counter surface and underwater missile attacks from the enemy.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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