Pakistan: Former PM Khan Placed Under Travel Ban

Image copyright: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf/YouTube [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Spin

Narrative A

Though Pakistan has been engulfed in a constitutional crisis that is threatening its stability, no player has shown any inclination so far to pull back. Instead of finding a democratic solution to this crisis, elected leaders across the political spectrum have been vying for the support of the military — even Khan and his PTI supporters, who are currently facing a military crackdown.

Narrative B

Even though Khan has focused specifically on disempowering Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, he cannot win this standoff as there's no common cause to bring people across the political spectrum together in his support. It was the military that brought Khan to power in 2018 and ousted him in 2022, so it makes sense that the PTI is attempting to exploit internal difference within the army to return to office.

Metaculus Prediction


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