Nigeria: Vote Counting Under Way in Presidential Election

Image copyright: Associated Press [via Al Jazeera]

The Spin


Narrative A

Despite living under democratic rule since 1999, this is the first time that Nigerians could cast their votes for a candidate that offers hope for change as the country faces economic and security challenges. Obi can unite the country as he is campaigning on competence instead of ethnic or religious lines, and he knows the problems of Nigeria more than anyone else.


Narrative B

While this election may promote youth engagement in politics and lead to a break in the hegemony of Nigeria's two establishment parties, very little will change, even if Obi enters into office as parliament is likely to remain under the control of those political forces. In addition, his market-oriented reforms can only deepen the country's social, economic, and security crises.


Metaculus Prediction


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