National Polls: Trump Leads DeSantis by Double Digits

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The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

These polls show why DeSantis will be making the biggest political mistake of his career by challenging Trump, who leads DeSantis in all the major categories — even the ones the mainstream media said wouldn’t be attracted to the former president. Trump is the present and future of the Republican Party despite how much the establishment hates him.

Republican narrative

If DeSantis wins Iowa and contends tightly in New Hampshire, there would be a momentum shift that would permit voters to move away from Trump, who hasn’t changed since his 2020 defeat to Pres. Biden. DeSantis is strong in those states, so Trump shouldn’t count on an easy race. The entire GOP would likely enjoy a hard-fought close race between these two.

Democratic narrative

It looks like Republicans are stuck with Trump, despite his 2020 election loss and his inspiring the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, at the US Capitol. DeSantis was supposed to be the heir apparent, but instead, he can’t break through Trump’s hold on the grassroots of the party. This is 2016 all over again. Despite the success DeSantis has had in pushing Orbanist-like policies in Florida, the Democrats will likely still face Trump's GOP come 2024.

Narrative D

Alarmingly, the real winner of the Republican primary looks to be Vladimir Putin. Both Trump and DeSantis have made it clear that if they become president, Ukraine's support from the US would be in danger. This domestic debate could have global consequences, and if the war is still going on in 2024, Ukraine's fate could effectively be decided on the ballot next year.

Metaculus Prediction

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