Maryland Rep. Trone Launches 2024 Senate Bid

Image copyright: Associated Press

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Democrats have a strong pool of candidates vying to succeed Cardin, and former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan’s decision not to run has left a void on the other side. So compared to other states, it should be relatively easy for Democrats to retain the Maryland seat in 2024.

Republican narrative

Every Democratic retirement is an opportunity for Republicans to turn the thin margin in the Senate in their favor, and they should be able to find a viable candidate that will better represent the people of Maryland than any Democrat or a moderate like Hogan. Don't count this as a Democratic win just yet.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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