Japan: Cadet Fatally Shoots Two Soldiers

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The Spin

Narrative A

This tragic shooting comes as a surprise to the Japanese nation, as it's hard to understand why the suspect would do such a thing. Given that such an incident should never happen in an organization that operates weapons, the GSDF is now redoubling its efforts to prevent further attacks.

Narrative B

While authorities are yet to establish the suspect's motives, this tragedy was likely long in the making as young recruits too often experience bullying and sexual harassment while in service. The fact that the force failed to achieve its recruitment target last year should have raised red flags for the SDF.

Metaculus Prediction


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