Japan: Cadet Fatally Shoots Two Soldiers

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The Facts

  • An 18-year-old Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) trainee opened fire at instructors during live-fire training on Wednesday at a military firing range in Gifu, central Japan, killing two and injuring another. He was immediately arrested on charges of attempted murder.

  • The suspect reportedly told police that he intentionally shot his 52-year-old instructor, adding that he deliberately fired shots at another colleague who stood between himself and his target.


The Spin

Narrative A

This tragic shooting comes as a surprise to the Japanese nation, as it's hard to understand why the suspect would do such a thing. Given that such an incident should never happen in an organization that operates weapons, the GSDF is now redoubling its efforts to prevent further attacks.

Narrative B

While authorities are yet to establish the suspect's motives, this tragedy was likely long in the making as young recruits too often experience bullying and sexual harassment while in service. The fact that the force failed to achieve its recruitment target last year should have raised red flags for the SDF.

Nerd narrative

There's a 73% chance that the Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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