Israel Set to Approve Hostage Release Deal With Hamas

Israel Set to Approve Hostage Release Deal With Hamas
Image copyright: Amir Levy/Getty Images News [via Getty Images]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While freeing hostages is of the utmost important, Israel must not succumb to international pressure. Hamas has a history of forcing unfair deals, and if entered into carelessly, it could use the ceasefire to regroup and rearm itself and perpetuate its dominance in Gaza. Any negotiation with the terrorists could be destructive to Israel's future, which is why it must proceed cautiously.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the Israel Defense Forces are getting closer to the hostages, a tactical assault on Hamas to free the captives could lead to the deaths of many more. Israel must do whatever it takes to bring its citizens home immediately, including a prisoner exchange or a temporary ceasefire, which will also see much-needed aid reach Gaza, where a humanitarian cataclysm is currently unfolding.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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