Iran Reportedly Presents its First Hypersonic Ballistic Missile

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • On Tuesday, Iran's state media unveiled pictures of the "Fattah" — the state's first domestically-made hypersonic ballistic missile. It was unveiled at a ceremony attended by President Ebrahim Raisi and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps.

  • The name, which approximately translates to "the opener," was chosen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the missile being claimed to have a range of 1.4K km (870 mi) and reach a speed of Mach 15.


The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

While, ironically, America's withdrawal from the 2015 agreement was intended to curb Iran's missile program, instead Tehran has achieved a historic feat in joining an exclusive international military elite. The Fattah missile is a response to threats from both Israel and the US, and because Iran's military technology continues to make significant progress, hostile actors will now think twice about inflicting aggression.

Anti-Iran narrative

Available facts concerning Iran's latest missile cast doubt on the state's claim of success. With current technology producing similar missiles of a speed of around 5-8 Machs, Iran's claim of 15 Machs seems like an exaggeration. In addition, no information was given concerning whether such a speed would be during initial phases, or rather when reaching a target. With many Russian claims of a hypersonic weapon being proved wrong during the Ukraine war, Iran's unveiling should be taken with a generous pinch of salt.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance of the US rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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