Gabon: Military Junta Announces Elections for August 2025

Image copyright: US Army Africa/Flickr [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Monday's announcement of a roadmap to return to constitutional order in Gabon is good news. The US welcomes that Nguema appears to be honoring his commitment to restore civilian rule. If Libreville makes further progress toward democracy, the suspension of aid might be reconsidered. However, in addition to democratic elections, the military leaders must also address the country's economic and social woes. Washington will follow the process closely and continue to stand in solidarity with the Gabonese people in their struggle for democracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the so-called "international community" demands elections in Gabon, it often ignores the origins of military coups in Africa. Ali Bongo's rule was by no means democratic and his overthrow was supported by large parts of the population frustrated by the lack of any democratic dividend. Former colonial powers such as France are also playing a role by supporting dubious elections and incompetent leaders in order to maintain their influence. People want democracy, but most of all, they hope for an improvement in their living conditions.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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