France to Give Armored Vehicles to Lebanese Army

France to Give Armored Vehicles to Lebanese Army
Image copyright: Christian Liewig - Corbis [via Getty Images]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

France has strong historical ties to Lebanon and its people, owing largely to the country's extensive diplomatic involvement in the region. France also perceives instability in the Middle East as a threat to its own security, thus explaining its interest in strengthening military ties with the country. It makes perfect sense that the French would send military equipment as part of this effort.

Establishment-critical narrative

The French are kidding themselves if they think that the Lebanese people will suddenly forget France's support for Israel's ruthless assault on Gaza, just because it plans to send some armored vehicles to the Lebanese army. France can warn and threaten Hezbollah all it wants, but this will have no impact on Hezbollah's resistance to Israel and the daily attacks it carries out on the border.

Metaculus Prediction


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