Recession Fears: US Economy Shrinks for Second Consecutive Quarter

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    The Spin

    Republican narrative

    Just a few days ago Biden said we wouldn't face a recession, but he can't hide from his own Commerce Dept.'s report. The White House is scrambling to spin the concept of what a recession means, but the American people – whose lives have been severely impacted by the current state of the economy – literally aren't buying it.

    Democratic narrative

    The two-quarter-declining GDP rule is misleading. While GDP makes up a portion of the NBER's deliberations, the committee takes into account other indicators when determining a recession - which hasn't actually been announced. With the current job market, the Biden admin. and the NBER are right to not induce panic: things aren't as bad as some people claim.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Political split

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    RIGHT

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    © 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.0

    © 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

    All rights reserved.

    Version 6.15.0