Kenya: Four Abducted In Suspected al-Shabab Attack

Image copyright: Anadolu Agency

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Just like ISIS, the goal of al-Shabab — which has grown from hundreds of militants to thousands — is to create an Islamic State in Somalia. Without continued support from the West and Somalia's neighbors, some estimate the group's violent attacks will increase by over 70%. They aren't just a threat to Somalia but to its Western and African allies. More must be done to counter them.

Establishment-critical narrative

After a little-known brief period of peace and prosperity, the 2006 US and UK-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia is what really created modern-day al-Shabab. In pursuit of expanding its military presence everywhere, the West — with Pres. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as its proxy — has yet again helped cause the problems it's now trying to "fix." The last thing needed is more Western meddling.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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