Irish Soldier Killed After UN Convoy Attacked in Lebanon

Image copyright: AFP [via The Times of Israel]

The Spin


Narrative A

This was an avoidable tragedy. The unintentional incident that led to the death of the Irish soldier came as the UNIFIL vehicle did not take the highway route but rather took the sea route and ran over a group of angered young men from the al-Aqibiya region who tried to stop the vehicle. An investigation must scrutinize why soldiers failed to follow the convoy and passed in this area of Beirut.


Narrative B

All the current evidence suggests that this was a preplanned attack, most likely in response to UNIFIL slightly changing how it operates in south Lebanon. Considering that Hezbollah has a strong presence in the area and essentially runs its de-facto separate state in the south, it would not be surprising if Hezbollah was behind this. It would not be the first time the group has come into conflict with UNIFIL either.


Metaculus Prediction


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!