Ethiopia, Tigray Meet for Talks in South Africa

    Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

    The Spin


    Narrative A

    As federal government forces gain more ground against the TPLF, it seems like a good time for peace talks to begin. The conflict has led to too many casualties, and the only way for it to end is for the rebels to acknowledge Ethiopian authority and agree to unify as one country again.


    Narrative B

    Though the history of Ethiopia-Tigray relations is complicated, the fact remains that before gaining power 30 years ago, Tigrayans were a poor, victimized group with no political agency within the Ethiopian government. If Tigray concedes to the Ethiopian government now, they may very well end up back in a state of poverty and powerlessness.


    Metaculus Prediction


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