Day 132 Roundup: NATO Countries Sign Finland and Sweden's Accession Protocols, Russia Consolidates Gains in Ukraine

    Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Finland and Sweden's joining of NATO is a win-win. Both countries would benefit from the alliance's Article 5 on collective defense. Meanwhile, NATO gains additional capabilities in defending Europe from further Russian aggression.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Russia has consistently said it would use military force to prevent NATO expansion on its borders – heeding that advice could've prevented the Ukraine conflict. Finland and Sweden's joining of the alliance not only makes them less secure, but risks an all-out global conflict if Article 5 is triggered.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

    More neutral establishment stance articles

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