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Judge Orders Release of 5-Year-Old, Father from ICE
U.S. District Judge Fred Biery on Saturday ordered the release of five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos and his father, Adrian Conejo Arias, from ICE custody by Tuesday, ruling their detention violated constitutional principles and due process requirements. The two were released and returned to Minnesota on Sunday, according to Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro.
The father and son were detained on Jan. 20 in Columbia Heights, Minnesota, during an immigration operation and transported to a family detention facility in Dilley, Texas. The Department of Homeland Security stated the father was in the country illegally from Ecuador.
School officials said ICE agents took Liam from a running car and directed him to knock on his door, while DHS claimed the father fled and abandoned the child. The boy's mother refused to open the door, and an ICE officer remained with Liam until his father was arrested.
Democratic narrative
ICE kidnapped a five-year-old from his driveway, used him as bait, then trafficked him to a Texas detention warehouse where he fell sick. This mass deportation machine is separating families and holding infants in dangerous conditions — state-sanctioned child trafficking that demands immediate investigation.
Republican narrative
ICE didn't lure anyone — agents executed a lawful warrant, the father fled and abandoned his son, and the family refused to take custody. Law enforcement stepped up to care for the child, providing food and comfort while following proper protocol that allows parents to designate safe guardians.
Nerd narrative
There's a 49% chance that the U.S. will establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before Jan. 3, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Mandelson Quits Labour Over Epstein Payment Allegations
Peter Mandelson, the U.K.'s former ambassador to the U.S., has resigned from the Labour Party, stating he did not wish to cause "further embarrassment" to the party following revelations about his alleged links to Jeffrey Epstein. In a letter to Labour's general secretary, he said allegations of financial payments made by Epstein 20 years ago needed to be investigated.
Documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice suggest Epstein made three separate $25,000 payments totaling $75,000 to accounts linked to Mandelson between 2003 and 2004. Mandelson told the BBC he had no recollection of the payments and did not know whether the documents were genuine.
Emails released by the DOJ appear to show Mandelson telling Epstein in 2009 that he was "trying hard" to water down a tax on bank bonuses while serving as business secretary. Mandelson said his conversations reflected the views of the financial sector as a whole, not those of any single individual.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite a long history of political comebacks, it is clear that this is now the end of the road for Peter Mandelson. Credible or not, attempts to return to the fore with pleas of innocence have fallen on deaf ears as the extent of his relationship with Epstein continues to become more apparent. His decision to leave the Labour Party finally shows an acceptance that, even for the "Prince of Darkness," there are some scandals that cannot be escaped.
Establishment-critical narrative
The decision to allow Mandelson to resign from the Labour Party on his own terms only further exposes the rot at the heart of Westminster. It is not enough to retire quietly into the shadows — Mandelson must be compelled to testify and finally reveal all for the sake of Epstein's victims and their families, whilst an inquiry must take place to determine how much the government knew prior to his appointment.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Keir Starmer will win the next U.K. Labour Party leadership election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nigeria Kills Boko Haram Commander, Ten Militants in Raid
The Nigerian army announced on Sunday that it killed Abu Khalid, identified as the second-in-command of Boko Haram in the Sambisa Forest, along with 10 other militants during a night operation in Borno State on Saturday.
According to the Nigerian armed forces, Abu Khalid was a "key figure within the terrorist hierarchy," coordinating operations and logistics in the Sambisa axis. During the operation, troops recovered five AK-47 rifles, magazines, bicycles, food supplies and medical items.
The announcement comes after Islamic State-aligned militants killed dozens of people in two separate attacks on a construction site and military base in northeastern Borno state last week. The assault marked the deadliest attack since the U.S. conducted air strikes late last year.
Pro-government narrative
The killing of a senior Boko Haram commander highlights Nigeria’s growing success in dismantling terrorist networks through coordinated military operations. Recent strikes eliminated key figures — including the group’s second-in-command Abu Khalid — and saw major weapons caches be seized. Backed by U.S. intelligence and air support, sustained pressure is forcing fighters to flee across borders, ending years of impunity and restoring state control in contested areas.
Government-critical narrative
Nigeria’s military touts the killing of a senior Boko Haram commander as progress, but such claims have become a ritual masking state failure. The crisis is not religious over 40,000 have been killed, mostly Muslims attacked in mosques, and 3.5 million displaced by insurgency, banditry and communal violence. Framing the crisis through simplified narratives obscures Abuja’s failure to address economic collapse, climate stress and governance breakdown.
Nerd narrative
There is a 70% chance that the United States will launch another strike against the Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Says Kennedy Center to Close for Two Years
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington — recently renamed to include Trump's moniker — will halt entertainment events for approximately two years starting July 4. The closure is intended to allow for construction and renovation work.
In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that the decision followed a yearlong review involving "Contractors, Musical Experts, Art Institutions, and other Advisors and Consultants," adding that financing for the project is complete and fully in place.
Trump said that the closure will "produce a much faster and higher quality result," that the Kennedy Center can be "the finest Performing Arts Facility of its kind," and that there will be a "Grand Reopening" after the renovation. First Lady Melania Trump's documentary premiered at the Kennedy Center on Thursday.
Democratic narrative
Trump made the Kennedy Center so toxic that performers fled en masse, forcing a shutdown after 55 years of continuous operation. This closure mirrors Trump's failed casinos — a desperate cover-up for the fact that the venue would sit empty anyway after everyone canceled. Congress funds this institution, and deserves consultation before Trump unilaterally shuts down operations for two years.
Republican narrative
The Kennedy Center desperately needs a comprehensive renovation after decades of neglect, and temporary closure ensures faster, higher-quality construction without audience interruptions. Congress appropriated a historic $257 million specifically for these overdue repairs. Keeping the facility open would compromise construction quality and unnecessarily extend timelines.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that Donald Trump will cease to exercise presidential powers for at least 48 hours during 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran Warns US Attack Would Trigger 'Regional War'
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that any U.S. attack on Iran would trigger a "regional war." Speaking at an event marking the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Khamenei stated that Iran would not initiate conflict but would deliver a strong response to aggression.
Khamenei described recent nationwide protests in Iran as "similar to a coup," stating that demonstrators targeted government centers, police stations and mosques. Official figures put the death toll at 3,117, while U.S.-based Human Rights Activists reported 6,713 deaths.
U.S. President Donald Trump responded by stating he hopes to make a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Trump told reporters that the U.S. has deployed its most powerful ships to the region and said the world would "find out" whether Khamenei was correct if no deal was reached.
Pro-Iran narrative
The American military buildup near Iran amounts to dangerous brinkmanship that risks triggering a catastrophic regional conflict with consequences far beyond the immediate standoff. Washington’s threats and naval deployments are escalating tensions rather than reducing them, even as diplomatic channels remain open and active. With both sides signaling a willingness to negotiate if given space, coercive posturing and ultimatums risk foreclosing diplomatic paths that have not yet been exhausted and could still prevent a wider war.
Anti-Iran narrative
The ball is in Iran’s court as U.S. President Trump has made clear his patience is not unlimited, underscoring that overwhelming naval deployments are deterrence, not warmongering. The U.S. naval buildup in the Middle East signals Washington is done with escalation and delay. This armada gives Tehran a clear off-ramp abandon nuclear ambitions and halt the violent suppression of protesters, or face consequences that will make last year’s strikes appear restrained. History shows that Tehran responds to strength, not gestures, enabling serious negotiations.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that the United States and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Gold Plunges in Record Decline After Fed Chair Nomination
Gold prices fell by $215 per ounce to $4,676 in international markets on Monday, marking the third consecutive day of decline. This 9% slide was its lowest ‌in over two weeks, while silver slid more than 13%. Both metals had hit record highs last week.
Gold experienced its largest one-day dollar decline on record on Friday, plunging as much as 11% to around $4,800 per troy ounce after reaching nearly $5,600 on Thursday. Silver suffered a record one-day fall of 26%, while platinum dropped 18%.
U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, a decision that boosted the dollar and triggered sharp declines in precious metals markets. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is viewed as favoring a tighter monetary policy.
Narrative A
The wild instability in precious metals reveal dangerous market movements disconnected from reality. Those who invested at the peak should have seen that bond markets showed no inflation fears, Treasury yields moved opposite to debasement predictions and the dollar's movements contradict the safe-haven narrative. Those who ignored warnings about a 35% crash got exactly what they deserved.
Narrative B
Gold's sharp correction was inevitable after an unsustainable melt-up from $3,000 to $5,500 without meaningful pullbacks. However, the structural drivers behind the rally remain intact, including geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty and currency debasement concerns. Investors should view this as a buying opportunity to gradually build positions through a phased approach.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Gold Futures total price returns will exceed S&P 500 Futures's by at least 1.75% in the Feb. 13 period of Q1 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: International Humanitarian Law at 'Critical Breaking Point'
A report by the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, examining 23 armed conflicts between July 2024 and December 2025, has concluded that widespread violations have pushed international humanitarian law (IHL) to a "critical breaking point."
While the academy was unable to pinpoint the number of civilian fatalities across both years, it estimates that state and non-state actors killed "well over" 100,000 civilians across 2024 and 2025 in regular, and at times systematic, attacks, with massacres reported in Burkina Faso, Colombia, Haiti, Sudan and Syria.
The majority of these deaths were recorded in Gaza, where more than 72,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023, including approximately 18,592 children and 12,400 women by the end of December 2025.
Pro-establishment narrative
The findings of this report make it clear that international humanitarian law stands on a knife-edge, with widespread violations reported in every conflict examined. If allowed to continue, these abuses will ensure that the wars of the future will be ever more depraved and blood-soaked — necessitating urgent policy action to constrain these war crimes and restore the proper rules of engagement.
Establishment-critical narrative
What this report fails to recognize is that the international rules-based order upon which international humanitarian law rests no longer exists, if it ever really did in the first place, following decades of lax enforcement. The new reality is that of the old, that the powerful and the armed will do whatever they feel that they must or want, and that those powerless to stop it will suffer as a result.
Nerd narrative
There is a 26% chance that Israel will be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rafah Crossing Reopens With Limited Access
The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopened on Monday for pedestrians after being largely closed since Israeli forces seized control in May 2024. Israel and Egypt are likely to limit the numbers, with reports indicating 50 crossings in each direction on day one.
More than 18,500 Palestinians, including 4,000 children, are on the list of patients awaiting medical evacuation from Gaza, according to the U.N.
The EU Border Assistance Mission will administer the Palestinian side of the crossing, with Israeli authorities conducting security checks on all Palestinians making an entry. Gazans exiting will be tracked remotely by Israel using facial recognition software and video cameras.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel's reopening of Rafah isn't about humanitarian relief — it's about engineering permanent displacement. The crossing facilitates exit while blocking return, creating a one-way demographic shift that prioritizes population control over recovery. This is strategic depopulation disguised as border management, ensuring Gaza loses its people before any peace process even begins.
Pro-Israel narrative
Reopening Rafah with strict Israeli security oversight protects against Hamas rebuilding while enabling genuine humanitarian aid. Trucks will enter Gaza, and medical evacuations proceed under coordinated international monitoring. The controlled reopening balances security needs with relief efforts, preventing smuggling networks that fueled past conflicts.
Narrative C
The Rafah crossing's reopening offers vital hope — a lifeline for Gaza's sick, wounded, and separated families, with EU monitors supporting the effort. Yet humanitarian workers remain cautious the crisis persists, Israel's assault may resume, and violence has shifted to the West Bank. Relief is tempered by hard-earned skepticism and awareness of unmet needs.
Man Survives 48 Hours Without Lungs Using Artificial System
A 33-year-old man survived for 48 hours without lungs, after surgeons at Northwestern University removed his infected organs and connected him to an artificial lung system. The patient had developed acute respiratory distress syndrome triggered by influenza B and a drug-resistant bacterial infection.
Dr. Ankit Bharat and his team at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine designed a flow-adaptive extracorporeal total artificial lung system that maintained balanced blood flow through the heart. The system included a dual-lumen cannula, a flow-adaptive shunt, and dual left atrial returns.
The patient's condition improved rapidly after the infected lungs were removed, with blood pressure stabilizing and organ function recovering within hours. His lactate levels dropped from 8.2 mmol/L to less than 1.0 mmol/L within 24 hours, and medications to support blood pressure were discontinued after 12 hours.
Narrative A
The external artificial lung system is a major technical achievement that transforms hopeless cases into viable treatment pathways. This device maintains normal cardiac function without lungs — something previously considered virtually impossible — and allows critically ill patients to stabilize before transplant. The patient's spectacular recovery and excellent quality of life more than two years later prove this approach works.
Narrative B
Surviving without lungs for two days highlights both ingenuity and the limits of modern medicine. Though an artificial lung system kept him alive, this technique is complex, risky and currently available only at elite centers. Its rarity and resource intensity raise ethical questions about widespread use, cost and patient selection before it becomes a standard option.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that lab-grown complex vital organs will be used successfully in humans before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.