Climate-concerned narrative

Coral reefs have officially crossed the first major climate tipping point, with 80% experiencing the worst bleaching on record during 2023's marine heat waves. This irreversible collapse affects a billion people who depend on reefs for food, income and coastal protection. To avoid climate tipping points, we must accelerate efforts to limit warming and reduce the risks of severe climate impacts.

Climate-skeptic narrative

Alarmist assertions about the causes and solutions for an exaggerated climate crisis demand scrutiny. Climate impacts, like coral reef decline, are often overstated as tipping points. Reefs have adapted to past environmental shifts, and human interventions, such as coral restoration, show promise. Economic growth fuels innovation to mitigate impacts, while alarmist narratives exaggerate irreversible damage.

Narrative C

Climate tipping points remain theoretical constructs plagued by mathematical uncertainty and insufficient data. Scientists themselves question whether discussing these vague apocalyptic scenarios is even useful, as they may confuse people and lead them to give up on fighting climate change. The math behind tipping points is so fraught with assumptions that slight changes can make them disappear completely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that space-based technology will enable effective enforcement of the U.N. High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

China’s defiance masks deep vulnerability. With one-fifth of its workforce tied to exports, and growth chained to foreign demand, Xi faces rising joblessness and fading leverage. His threats ring hollow as U.S. tariffs bite and allies drift away, revealing an economy too brittle to withstand a prolonged cold war.

Pro-China narrative

Washington’s tariff bluster now rings hollow. Having weaponized trade to bully allies and rivals alike, the U.S. finds its coercion exposed as self-defeating — isolating it from partners, eroding trust, and shrinking its sway in global commerce. “America First” has curdled into “America Alone.”

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that China and the EU will reach a trade or tariff agreement in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-government narrative

An illegal coup attempt is underway forcing Rajoelina to flee the country, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.

Government-critical narrative

Rajoelina's fleeing the country is cause for hope for a nation on the brink of collapse. With protests mounting and soldiers refusing to act, his resignation could prevent bloodshed and give Madagascar a chance for a fresh start. Rather than clinging to power, his escape opens the door for a transitional government, renewed national dialogue and the prospect of stability that has long been elusive.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that there will be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-RSF narrative

The recent accusations against the RSF are false and fabricated, since El Fasher is devoid of any substantial civilian population. Instead, the Port Sudan authority and its lackeys in the city have used civilian sites as a shield, only to shout murder when targeted. These claims are ironic given the heinous human rights record of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Pro-SAF narrative

Since the beginning of this conflict, the Dagalo militia has engineered a genocide in Darfur, with the attack on El Fasher the latest in a long line of atrocities. The international community, however, has remained silent for too long in the face of these crimes. The U.N., therefore, must take action to stop supplies to these war criminals to prevent their program of ethnic cleansing.

Pro-establishment narrative

In this war of atrocities, the SAF and the RSF are as guilty as the other. The U.N. has found considerable evidence that both sides in this conflict have committed a litany of war crimes, ranging from civilian massacres to rape and slavery. The international community must impose sanctions to hold those responsible for these crimes accountable for their actions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 70% chance that the Sudanese Armed Forces will come out as the victor in the Sudanese civil war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

This is a diplomatic triumph and a moral victory for Israel. From the outset, it was clear Netanyahu would not relent until all hostages were freed and Israel's objectives met. Through resolute determination, robust military efforts and the invaluable support of President Trump, Israel has achieved this pivotal milestone. Hopefully, the deal will lead to an end to the war, but that will depend on how well the agreement is implemented.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The Palestinian people deserve their inherent right to self-determination and justice. For decades, they have endured occupation, displacement, and systemic oppression. Their struggle for sovereignty, dignity and equality is a universal call for human rights. This is a welcome but fragile ceasefire; international support must continue to prioritize their freedom, land and right to thrive.

Right narrative

This hostage deal marks a dangerous precedent that will inevitably lead to more terrorism. The 250 senior terrorists being released have decades of Israeli blood on their hands and will quickly return to planning attacks. Hamas never sought coexistence but complete elimination of Israel, as evidenced by their maps showing all Israeli territory as "Occupied Palestine."

Left narrative

Hamas has made significant concessions by releasing hostages without guarantees the war would end or Israeli forces would fully withdraw. Hamas gave in to pressure from Arab allies and desperate Gazans demanding relief. The deal itself however leaves key issues, including postwar governance of Gaza, for future negotiations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Israel will take control of Gaza City before Jan. 20, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, with great offensive capabilities. Russia is naturally opposed to this weapon expanding Ukraine's arsenal, which is why Trump may use it to leverage Putin into ending the conflict, as was pledged before he entered office.

Pro-Russia narrative

The deployment of Tomahawks would be a serious escalation of this conflict. Without the ability to see whether Tomahawks are carrying nuclear warheads or not, the use of this weapon could provoke serious responses from Moscow that have consequences for the rest of the world. Trump should not be so short-sighted in his attempts to pressure Putin — he is playing a risky game.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

The difference between Russia and Ukraine in this war is that Ukraine does not strike civilian targets as Russia has routinely done in the course of this conflict. As such, if Ukraine were to receive Tomahawks, they would be strictly used on military targets and to further its military aims.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Technological innovation through creative destruction powers sustained economic growth, transforming societies by replacing outdated methods with superior ones and boosting living standards everywhere. Societies thrive when open to change, linking scientific knowledge with practical applications to fuel endless progress. Embracing this process ensures prosperity lifts billions out of poverty without fail.

Narrative B

Protectionist policies, such as those in the U.S., hinder global innovation and economic growth by restricting competition essential for transformative change. Embracing free trade is vital for fostering innovation and preventing economic stagnation.

Narrative C

Protectionist policy intends to set taxes on imports and subsidize goods that the market doesn't produce naturally. It's a realistic and geopolitically sound approach to economics, espoused by leaders including Abraham Lincoln. The true nuances and benefits of protectionism are frequently misunderstood.

Nerd narrative

There is a 6% chance that a Nobel Prize for Economics will be awarded for MMT before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are at the lowest they have ever been, the truth is that Pakistan needs to engage this problem diplomatically. Choosing the alternative option of kinetic force will only lead to a full-fledged war between the two countries and such a conflict would be both catastrophic and unpredictable for all sides.

Narrative B

Pakistan is rightly out of patience with the Taliban who have, despite multiple warnings, taken no action to prevent the TTP from carrying out dozens of attacks on Pakistani territory. These attacks are the logical conclusion of tensions that have been brewing and the reality is that this is likely only just the beginning of a cycle of violence, with no easy solutions to stop the fighting from escalating.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is a pivotal breakthrough in AI infrastructure that will unlock unprecedented capabilities. With 800 million weekly users and growing enterprise adoption, this collaboration delivers the custom hardware needed to advance artificial general intelligence. The deal sets new industry benchmarks for scalable, power-efficient AI systems.

Establishment-critical narrative

This deal epitomizes the dangerous AI bubble that's about to burst. Stock markets hit record highs despite weak economic growth, with tech valuations completely disconnected from reality. Financial terms remain suspiciously unclear, raising red flags about inflated partnerships that could lead to massive investor losses.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.8% chance that OpenAI will announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.