US, China Extend Trade Truce by 90 Days
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday extending the U.S.-China tariff truce for 90 days until Nov. 10. This prevents U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from rising to 145% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from hitting 125%.
The extension maintains current tariff levels, with the U.S. imposing 30% duties on Chinese imports and China maintaining 10% tariffs on American goods. According to the White House, this will provide more time for negotiations on "remedying trade imbalances" and "unfair trade practices."
China's Commerce Ministry issued a parallel statement confirming the 90-day extension and agreeing to suspend or remove non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. as outlined in their Geneva joint declaration from May.
Pro-establishment narrative
The tariff extension shows Trump's effective negotiating strategy is working. China has taken "significant steps" toward addressing trade imbalances and national security concerns, proving that tough tariff threats force Beijing to the bargaining table. The relationship between Trump and Xi remains strong, creating opportunities for a comprehensive deal.
Pro-China narrative
China holds significant leverage in these negotiations through its control over rare earth mineral exports and strategic materials crucial to U.S. manufacturers. Beijing sees itself in a stronger position compared to previous trade talks and will likely use this advantage to pressure Washington for concessions without making substantial changes to its own trade practices.
Nerd narrative
There's a 97.6% chance that U.S. law will continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Nominates EJ Antoni to Lead Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he is nominating E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, as the next commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the U.S. economy is "booming," adding, "E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE. I know E.J. Antoni will do an incredible job in this new role."
The nomination requires Senate confirmation through the HELP Committee, led by Chair Bill Cassidy, who emphasized the need for a BLS Commissioner committed to producing accurate and unbiased economic information.
Republican narrative
Antoni will bring necessary reform to an agency plagued by inaccuracies and political manipulation. The massive job revisions and disconnect between official data and Americans' economic reality underscore the need for fresh leadership and a commitment to honest reporting at the BLS.
Democratic narrative
This nomination threatens the BLS's reputation as the gold standard for nonpartisan economic data, on which markets and policymakers worldwide depend. Firing McEntarfer and installing a partisan critic undermines decades of statistical integrity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that unemployed U.S. citizens will be provided with average benefits of at least $1,000 per month in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Zelenskyy Prepared to Cede Territory for Security Guarantees
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may be prepared to cede territory that's already been taken by Russia in the course of the war, according to reporting from the Telegraph on Monday.
According to the report — yet to be verified by additional publications — the European-backed plan would essentially mean freezing the war on current frontlines, thus accepting Russia's de facto control over Dontesk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. Zelenskyy, however, said that Ukraine would reject any proposal that included ceding the Donbas region over concerns Moscow could use for future attacks.
However, according to the Telegraph, while Ukraine may be prepared to cede territory for the sake of peace, it would only accept an agreement that provides robust security guarantees in the form of weapons deliveries and a path to membership to NATO. Those are conditions Moscow firmly opposes, with Russia setting its stall on a neutral, non-aligned and demilitarized Ukraine.
Pro-Trump narrative
There's no way around it. Russia and Ukraine are going to have to engage in land swaps to pull this peace deal off, and some of the ramifications will be good and bad for both Russia and Ukraine. However, a deal that's most acceptable to both sides needs to be found, and must include returning some land back to Ukraine.
Pro-establishment narrative
At these upcoming Alaska talks, Trump and Putin have the ability to take decisions that fly above Ukraine's head and the rest of the international community. That's why in the days leading up to talks, European diplomats will continue to back-channel with U.S. counterparts to ensure the Trump administration keeps Ukraine's best interests in mind.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Military and intelligence reports indicate that rather than preparing for a ceasefire, Putin is in fact preparing to launch new offensive operations into Ukrainian territory and continue the bloodshed. Putin aims to get a diplomatic score by securing a meeting with Trump but will then continue as before with the fighting. It is not to be trusted.
Pro-Russia narrative
With a meeting between Putin and Trump now confirmed, Russia's position will remain unchanged from what it has always been that for Russia's security, Ukraine must be a neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-weapon-free country and must not deploy foreign weapons on its territory. Ukraine also needs to guarantee the rights of Russian speakers in the country while accepting Russia's sovereignty of Crimea, Donbas and Novorossiya.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before July 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Vaccine Shows Promise Against Pancreatic, Bowel Cancers
A phase 1 clinical trial of the ELI-002 2P vaccine involving 25 patients with pancreatic and colorectal cancers who had KRAS mutations and minimal residual disease after standard treatment has found evidence suggesting that the off-the-shelf vaccine can produce an immune response against the cancer.
The vaccine targets KRAS gene mutations, which occur in approximately 90% of pancreatic cancers and 40% of colorectal cancers, using peptides that train immune cells to recognize and attack mutated cancer cells.
After a median follow-up of 19.7 months, 84% of patients generated KRAS-specific T-cell responses, with 68% developing strong immune responses above a predetermined threshold of a 9.17-fold increase over baseline.
Narrative A
This breakthrough represents a game-changer for pancreatic cancer patients who face dismal survival odds. The vaccine's ability to generate lasting immune responses without requiring personalized manufacturing makes it accessible and cost-effective. Results showing patients living cancer-free for extended periods offer genuine hope where few options existed before.
Narrative B
While early results appear promising, this remains a small phase 1 trial with significant limitations that warrant caution. The study lacked controls, combined two different cancer types with varying prognoses, and requires validation in larger randomized trials before clinical benefit can be confirmed. Previous vaccine approaches have failed to translate into meaningful patient outcomes.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by January 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Spain Orders Town to Drop Ban on 'Foreign' Religious Gatherings
The Spanish government has ordered the town of Jumilla, in the Murcia region, to cancel a ban on religious gatherings in public sports facilities that would primarily affect the town's Muslim community celebrating Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha.
The ban was initially proposed by the right-wing Vox party following attacks on foreigners, which came in response to the assault of an elderly person. It was later amended and approved by the center-right Popular Party, prohibiting municipal sports facilities from being used for "cultural, social or religious activities foreign to the City Council."
Territorial Policy Minister Ángel Víctor Torres announced Monday that Madrid had formally instructed Jumilla to cancel the ban, stating that political parties cannot decide who has freedom of worship and who does not.
Left narrative
This federal ruling is a ray of hope amid rising Islamophobia in Spain and Europe. The ban, pushed by the usual far-right groups, targeted Muslims — who were simply celebrating festivals like Eid — clashing with Spain's legacy of religious diversity. This ruling upholds freedom of religion, countering xenophobic policies and fostering coexistence in a time of growing anti-Muslim sentiment.
Right narrative
The Spanish people are tired of being treated as second-class citizens while the government coddles violent migrants, who are culturally incompatible in large numbers. Spain is a Catholic country, and its people have every right to preserve their cultural and religious heritage. If the government had acknowledged this earlier, there would've been no need for the Vox Party, which is now growing more popular than ever.
Adult Pacifier Use in China Gains Popularity
Adult pacifiers have become a trending product in China, with some online retailers claiming to sell over 2,000 units monthly at prices ranging from 10 to 500 yuan ($1.40 to $70). The products are marketed as stress relievers, sleep aids and smoking cessation tools on e-commerce platforms like Taobao and JD.com.
Buyers report that the products help ease workplace stress, improve sleep and support quitting smoking. One user described "psychological comfort" while giving up cigarettes, while another reported feeling "a sense of safety from childhood" under job pressure.
Some medical professionals warn that prolonged use may cause dental misalignment, jaw stiffness and breathing problems. Dr. Tang Caomin, a dentist in Sichuan province, said using pacifiers for over three hours daily could shift tooth position.
Narrative A
Adult pacifiers offer a practical solution for managing modern stress and anxiety. Users consistently report positive experiences, from workplace stress relief to smoking cessation support. The products provide immediate comfort and psychological benefits at an affordable price point, making them accessible stress management tools.
Narrative B
This trend represents a concerning avoidance of real problem-solving and poses genuine health risks. Medical experts warn of dental damage, breathing problems and choking hazards from prolonged use. Rather than addressing underlying stress causes, adults are regressing to infantile behaviors that may worsen their ability to cope with life challenges.
Nerd narrative
There is a 9% chance that China's GDP will overtake the U.S. before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Inflation Holds Steady, Core Prices Increase
The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% annually in July 2025, matching June's rate and falling below economists' expectations of 2.8%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.1% annually in July, marking the highest level since February and exceeding economists' forecasts of 3.0%.
Energy prices declined 1.1% in July with gasoline falling 2.2%, contributing to overall price stability despite concerns about tariff-driven inflation pressures on consumer goods.
Republican narrative
The inflation data proves tariffs aren't driving up consumer prices as critics predicted. Energy costs dropped significantly, food prices stayed flat, and overall inflation came in below expectations. Small business optimism hit a five-month high while tariff revenue pours billions into Treasury coffers. The economy is booming despite Fed Chair Powell's refusal to cut rates.
Democratic narrative
Core inflation jumped to its highest level in months, signaling tariff costs are starting to hit consumers through higher prices for furniture, appliances and services. Goldman Sachs estimates businesses will pass more tariff costs to consumers in coming months, potentially pushing inflation toward 3.8% by year-end. The Fed faces a difficult choice between supporting employment and controlling rising prices.
Nerd narrative
There is a 41% chance that the month percentage change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Former PA Official Being Considered for Postwar Gaza Governor
Israeli outlet Ynet released a report on Tuesday alleging that a U.S.-backed initiative is pushing for former Palestinian Authority (PA) official Samir Hulileh to become the governor of Gaza after the war ends. Israeli officials have repeatedly said that the PA will not govern Gaza after the war.
The report — based on conversations with an Israeli NGO and documents submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice — alleges that Hulileh would be acceptable to Israel and the United States and would operate under Arab League auspices.
Hulileh's candidacy is reportedly being promoted in part by lobbyist Ari Ben-Menashe, a former Israeli intelligence official who was involved in the Iran-Contra affair and represented Zimbabwe's former leader Robert Mugabe, among other controversial figures.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though it must go through many changes beforehand, the only viable Palestinian political entity capable of governing Gaza after the war is Mahmoud Abbas' PA. Everyone can agree that the PA has many issues that must be urgently fixed, namely, its corruption and Abbas' weakness. Nonetheless, the PA is the obvious choice for Gaza's postwar governance, as Israel will need Palestinian partners to administer the strip. The only reason Netanyahu is against the PA taking over Gaza is that it contradicts his annexationist agenda.
Pro-Israel narrative
Neither Hamas nor the PA can govern Gaza after the war. However, Palestinian figures like Hulileh may prove to be useful in the strip's postwar administration. Granted, Hulileh has said he can only assume the role of the strip's governor in the context of a permanent end to the war, which is still being debated. Still, Palestinian figures that are independent of Hamas and the PA are the best option for governing Gaza.
Pro-Palestine narrative
These postwar plans are very clearly not feasible and are only meant to bide time as Netanyahu tries to maneuver politically. The lobbyist backing Hulileh is infamous for his shady dealings, and one should be rather skeptical of a Palestinian figure who is supported by a man who is often referred to as "the warlords' favorite lobbyist." Indeed, Israel had done everything it could to continue its genocidal policies in Gaza and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UFC CEO Confirms White House Fight For US' 250th Birthday
UFC CEO Dana White on Monday confirmed that a mixed martial arts event will take place on the White House South Lawn on July 4, 2026, to celebrate America's 250th birthday, marking the first professional MMA event at the presidential residence.
White said Tuesday that he spoke with President Donald Trump on Monday night and plans to meet with Trump and his daughter Ivanka at the end of this month to finalize details and review venue renderings for the White House fight card.
The announcement coincides with UFC's new seven-year streaming deal with Paramount worth an average of $1.1 billion annually, replacing the traditional pay-per-view model with fights available on Paramount+.
Pro-Trump narrative
A country as great as America deserves an incredible event to celebrate a historic birthday. White has promised the White House he will deliver the best card UFC has ever put together. This event will be just one part of the greatest year America has ever seen, thanks to Trump's knack for the dramatic.
Anti-Trump narrative
Those who hoped a UFC card at the White House was a joke when Trump floated the idea earlier this summer, now must face the fact that it's going to happen. There's seemingly no bottom to how low the president will stoop to desecrate America and its traditions, and to insult the founding fathers.
South Korea: Ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol's Wife Arrested
A South Korean court on Tuesday ordered the arrest of Kim Keon Hee, the wife of impeached former President Yoon Suk Yeol, making her the first former first lady to be arrested in the country's history.
The Seoul Central District Court issued the arrest warrant citing concerns about alleged evidence destruction as the primary reason for detention, after Kim was questioned for over seven hours by investigators last week.
Kim faces charges of participating in a stock price manipulation scheme involving Deutsch Motors from 2009 to 2012, meddling in candidate nominations for the 2022 parliamentary by-elections and receiving luxury gifts.
Pro-government narrative
The arrest represents long-overdue accountability for corruption that plagued Yoon's presidency. Kim's influence behind the scenes was so extensive that South Koreans joked she was "V.I.P. No. 1," while her husband was "V.I.P. No. 2." The concerns regarding evidence destruction justify detention, given the serious nature of the stock manipulation and bribery charges.
Government-critical narrative
This arrest appears politically motivated by the new liberal government targeting the conservative former president's family. Despite fully cooperating with authorities, Kim’s fragile health raises serious concerns about the fairness of her detention. The timing also coincides suspiciously with ongoing investigations into Yoon's declaration of martial law.
Nerd narrative
There's an 82% chance that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will complete his full term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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