25 June 2025

Daily Newsletter

US Intel: Trump's Strikes Didn't Destroy Iran Nuclear Program

The Facts

  • The U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities did not destroy key parts of Iran's nuclear program and only set back the nuclear program by a few months, a preliminary assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found, contradicting President Donald Trump's claims of destruction.

  • The report concluded that while Saturday's strikes on the nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan sealed off the entrances to two of the complexes, the underground buildings did not collapse, and at least some of Iran's highly enriched uranium was moved before the attack.

  • The U.S. military operation "Midnight Hammer" involved B-2 bombers dropping 14 GBU-57 "bunker-buster" bombs, each weighing 30,000 pounds, along with submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles on the three nuclear sites. The operation was the largest B-2 mission in history.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This is a deliberate attempt to undermine Trump and one of the most successful military operations in history. If 14 30,pound bunker-buster bombs hit their target perfectly, total obliteration is the only possible outcome, so there can be no doubt that Iran's nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed. Military strength is the only language Tehran understands, and only the overwhelming success of Trump's military operation opened the way for a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Anti-Trump narrative

These findings only confirm existing evaluations that the strikes failed to achieve their goal of destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, the stockpile of enriched uranium was evacuated beforehand, and the centrifuges can be put back into operation within a few months. Not only was the Trump administration's military operation a massive failure, but whatever is said or written cannot hide the fact that Iran has won a major victory over the U.S. and Israel and will continue to defend its right to a peaceful nuclear program.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that Iran will attack U.S. sites in Iraq before August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Mamdani Wins New York City's Democratic Mayoral Primary

The Facts

  • Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist state assemblyman, won New York City's Democratic mayoral primary with 43.5% of first-choice votes on Tuesday night.

  • He defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who received 36.4% of the vote and conceded the race. Cuomo had led in polling for months and received over $25 million in outside spending, the largest amount in city primary history.

  • The assemblyman ran on a progressive platform promising to freeze rent on regulated apartments, make city buses free, establish government-owned grocery stores, and raise the minimum wage to $30.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Mamdani's victory signals that voters want real change from the failed establishment politics that have made New York unaffordable. His grassroots campaign demonstrated that progressive policies, such as rent freezes and free public transit, resonate with working families struggling with rising costs. The defeat of scandal-plagued Cuomo shows New Yorkers reject the old guard's corruption and empty promises.

Republican narrative

This socialist takeover threatens New York's economic future with unrealistic policies that will drive businesses away and bankrupt the city. Mamdani lacks the experience to manage a $100 billion budget and 300,000 employees, while his anti-Israel positions alienate Jewish voters in a city with nearly one million Jews. His radical agenda, which includes government-run grocery stores, ignores fundamental economic realities.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Zohran Mamdani will be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Iran Suspends Nuclear Ties with IAEA

The Facts

  • President Trump’s ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, as both countries have claimed victory and begun lifting restrictions. Israel reopened Ben Gurion Airport and lifted emergency restrictions, while Iran is reportedly set to reopen its airspace.

  • It follows Trump’s rebuke of both nations on Tuesday for allegedly violating the ceasefire, with the president telling reporters at the White House that the two countries “don’t know what... they’re doing.”

  • In the meantime, Iran’s parliament has approved a bill to suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until the safety of its nuclear facilities is guaranteed, with the measure now awaiting final approval from the Supreme National Security Council.


The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

Despite the unprecedented success of Israel’s campaign against Iran, it's not over. Israel is instead entering a new phase of the conflict, which will build upon the achievements of the day operation. While the ceasefire holds, however, the IDF will return its attention to Gaza, where it will continue efforts to free the hostages and dismantle Hamas.

Pro-Iran narrative

For the last fortnight, the IAEA has shown its true colors in its dealings with Iran, with its politically motivated resolution and its refusal to condemn Israel’s and America’s aggression, which was in flagrant violation of international law. Considering this, it is only fitting that Iran suspends cooperation with the UN watchdog until it can guarantee the safety of its facilities.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that there will be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Meta Oversight Board Finds Inconsistent AI Content Labeling

The Facts

  • Meta's Oversight Board has criticized the company's enforcement of manipulated media policies as "inconsistent, incoherent, and unjustifiable" following a case involving an unlabeled AI-manipulated audio clip of Iraqi Kurdish politicians discussing election rigging.

  • The controversial audio clip, posted by a media outlet with 4 million followers, garnered approximately 200,000 views and was reported by users as misinformation. However, Meta initially declined to label it despite later labeling other instances of the same content on different pages.

  • Meta can only automatically detect and label AI-generated static images, not video or audio content, leading to inconsistent enforcement where identical manipulated media receive different treatment across the platform, according to the Oversight Board's findings published Tuesday.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Meta's inconsistent AI labeling creates dangerous information gaps that undermine election integrity and user trust. The company has the technical expertise and resources to detect manipulated content automatically, but chooses to rely on unreliable third-party assessments instead. This approach fails to provide users with clear, consistent warnings about potentially fake content, especially during critical electoral periods.

Pro-establishment narrative

Meta faces legitimate technical challenges in automatically detecting sophisticated AI-generated audio and video content at scale across billions of posts. The company has made significant investments in AI detection technology and expanded its labeling efforts, but achieving perfect consistency remains technically challenging, given the evolving nature of deepfake technology and the massive volume of content uploaded daily.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested, and publicly announced by January 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

France: Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

The Facts

  • French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence motion filed by the Socialist Party following the failure of talks between trade unions and employers over the 2023 pension law, which raised the retirement age to 64.

  • The Socialist Party had previously abstained from efforts to remove Bayrou's government during four months of negotiations over pensions. However, party leader Boris Vallaud announced the censure motion after Bayrou refused to allow parliamentary debate on lowering the retirement age back to 62.

  • The failed pension reform talks, dubbed a "conclave" by Bayrou, aimed to address targeted measures, including better pensions for women based on the number of children, early retirement for workers in arduous jobs, and a gradual increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64.


The Spin

Pro-government narrative

Talks may have failed, but there is still light at the end of the tunnel. All parties seek a remedy to the 2023 pension reforms, and toppling the government once again would only plunge France back into the all-too-familiar political chaos. Although the deadline has passed, it is now more crucial than ever for all representatives to return to the table and reach a deal.

Opposition narrative

Bayrou broke his word to Parliament and workers by refusing to allow debate on lowering the retirement age after promising lawmakers would have the "last word" on pension reform. The failed talks expose his government's subservience to employer interests over worker needs, making censure the only democratic response to this betrayal.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance a vote of no confidence will pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

SpaceX Launches Private Astronauts to ISS After Leak Delays

The Facts

  • SpaceX launched the Axiom Mission 4 crew to the International Space Station at 2:31 a.m. EDT Wednesday from NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The mission carries astronauts from India, Poland, and Hungary on their countries' first visit to space in over 40 years.

  • Former NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson commands the mission alongside pilot Shubhanshu Shukla of India and mission specialists Slawosz Uznanski-Wisniewski of Poland and Tibor Kapu of Hungary. Each country has sponsored its astronaut's participation.

  • The crew will spend approximately two weeks aboard the ISS, conducting over 60 scientific experiments — the highest number on any Axiom mission to date — alongside joint NASA-ISRO investigations and educational outreach activities.


The Spin

Techno-optimist narrative

This mission is a triumph of American commercial space leadership, enabling international partners to access space through cost-effective solutions provided by the private sector. The successful launch demonstrates how U.S. industry is expanding global participation in space exploration while reducing government costs. Private companies, such as Axiom, are building the foundation for America's future space economy.

Techno-skeptic narrative

The commercialization of space risks transforming the vast potential of the cosmos into yet another arena for profit-driven exploitation, prioritizing private gain over scientific discovery and global benefit. This shift invites monopolization of orbits, planetary resources, and even data, concentrating power in the hands of a few corporations. Without strict international oversight, space may become a frontier of inequality rather than a shared domain of human advancement.

Narrative C

The extended delays highlight serious safety concerns about the aging International Space Station, particularly the ongoing air leak issues in Russian modules that NASA and Roscosmos cannot agree on. These technical problems underscore the risks of relying on deteriorating infrastructure and the urgent need for new commercial space stations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a free flying commercial space station will become operational by July 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

House Rejects Trump Impeachment Effort Over Iran Strikes

The Facts

  • The U.S. House on Tuesday voted 344-79 to table Rep. Al Green's (D-Texas) impeachment resolution against President Donald Trump over strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with 128 Democrats joining all Republicans to defeat the measure.

  • Green's resolution accused Trump of abuse of power for ordering military strikes last weekend on Iran's Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities without seeking congressional authorization or providing evidence of an imminent threat to U.S. forces.

  • House Democratic leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, voted to table the impeachment effort.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Many Democrats were ready to impeach Trump the minute he returned to office, but Green's resolution couldn't even get a majority of Democrats to buy in. Trump clearly had the same right to carry out the Iran strikes as prior presidents, and the Democrats looking to challenge his authority are just bitter that America is winning under his leadership after the past four years of losing.

Anti-Trump narrative

If Democrats are truly committed to stopping Trump’s push toward authoritarianism and unchecked executive power, then it's time they take impeachment more seriously. His unilateral use of force against Iran already eroded the constitutional separation of powers and it would be wise to address this overreach now — before the precedent becomes normalized.

See sources

Argentina's GDP Grows 5.8% in Q1

The Facts

  • Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported on Monday that the country's economy in the first quarter of this year expanded year-on-year to 5.8% and to 0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

  • This comes as gross fixed capital formation surged 31.8% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter, with increases in machinery and equipment and transportation equipment sectors, as private consumption rose 11.6% year-on-year and 2.9% quarter-on-quarter.

  • Exports grew by 7.2% — a first-quarter record, according to the Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo — and imports surged 42.8% year-on-year, while public expenditure decreased.


The Spin

Pro-government narrative

Javier Milei's economic reforms are delivering spectacular results, with Argentina even outpacing China's growth rate. This Q1 expansion proves that fiscal discipline and free-market policies work better than the populist disasters of previous administrations. Investment is booming at 31.8% growth, showing business confidence in the new direction.

Government-critical narrative

This GDP growth is actually below forecasts, and does little to help Argentina to tackle its serious structural problems — tens of thousands of formal jobs have been lost since Milei took office and austerity measures have frozen wages and devastated the public sector. If the economy pick-up fails to seep through to the job market, then only a few will benefit from it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before Jan. 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Kenya: 16 Dead on Anniversary of Anti-Government Protests

The Facts

  • At least 16 people died during nationwide anti-government protests in Kenya on Wednesday, with most killed by police according to Amnesty Kenya's executive director Irungu Houghton, who said the figures were verified by the global rights watchdog and the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.

  • Over 400 people were injured during the demonstrations, with at least 83 requiring specialized treatment for gunshot wounds, according to a joint statement from the Kenya Medical Association, Law Society of Kenya, and Police Reforms Working Group. The potential use of live ammunition is in dispute.

  • The protests marked the first anniversary of 2024 deadly anti-government demonstrations, which left more than 60 people dead when protesters stormed parliament over proposed tax increases. Demonstrators carried white crosses bearing names of those killed and chanted "Ruto must go."


The Spin

Opposition narrative

While demanding justice and accountability after a year of police brutality and government indifference., these young Kenyans are rightfully commemorating their fallen comrades and demanding an end to extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances. The government's response, including media blackouts, only proves the protesters' point about authoritarian overreach.

Pro-government narrative

These demonstrations are threatening national security and public order, with protesters engaging in violence and destruction of property. Kenya is a democracy, and protesting is a right within limits acceptable to a democratic nation. Internal strife doesn't mean that outside agitators can intercede and pick sides in Kenya's domestic disputes.

See sources

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