Study: 1.5°C Warming Limit Could Be Breached by 2028
In a study published Thursday by the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, over 60 climate scientists warn that Earth could breach the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement within three years at current CO2 emission levels.
The study estimates that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is approximately 130 billion tonnes of CO2, starting in 2025. At current emission rates of 40 billion tonnes annually, this budget could be depleted by 2028.
Global surface temperatures in 2024 reportedly reached 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels — the highest on record — with 1.36°C attributed to human activities. While a single year above 1.5°C does not breach the Paris Agreement, the study predicts sustained warming could exceed this threshold by 2030.
Climate-concerned narrative
The climate crisis demands immediate action as we face an unprecedented emergency. Current emission levels are driving us toward catastrophic warming that will devastate vulnerable communities and ecosystems. The window for meaningful climate action is rapidly closing. Without transformational changes to energy systems and reductions in emissions, we're heading for unmanageable climate impacts that will fundamentally alter life on Earth.
Climate-skeptic narrative
An inconvenient truth that gets ignored amid all the 1.5°C warnings climate change might be saving more lives than it's taking. The reality is that cold-related deaths far outweigh heat fatalities — by a factor of eight. Every year, cold kills far more people than heat ever will. And let's not forget that climate change is a natural process, something that has always been happening. But of course, no one wants to talk about that because it doesn't fit the narrative.
Narrative C
While climate concerns exist, the focus should remain on technological innovation and economic growth rather than drastic emission cuts that could harm prosperity. Many predictions have proven overly alarmistic in the past, and human ingenuity will likely develop solutions to address climate challenges. Carbon removal technologies and adaptation measures can help mitigate the impacts of warming without necessitating the massive economic disruptions that would result from aggressive emission reduction targets.
Cynical narrative
They've been sounding the alarm for years, and the truth is, it's already too late. With the 1.5°C warning fast approaching, climate change is inevitable, and all the talk about solutions is just that — talk. Corporations won't change, governments are too busy, and we're on track for severe consequences. Our best option now is to determine where to retreat, as waiting for action is futile.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by August 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nippon Steel Completes $14.1B US Steel Acquisition
Nippon Steel Corp. completed its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp. on Wednesday, purchasing all shares at $55 each after an 18-month approval process that spanned two presidential administrations and faced political opposition throughout the review period.
The deal includes a "golden share" provision, granting the U.S. government veto power over key corporate decisions, including plant closures, job transfers overseas, headquarters relocation from Pittsburgh, and reductions in production capacity.
This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump reversed his previous opposition to approve the transaction through an executive order on Friday, after Nippon Steel agreed to invest $11 billion in U.S. facilities by 2028 and maintain American leadership positions including the CEO role and board majority.
Republican narrative
This deal is a massive win for American steelworkers and national security. Trump's brilliant negotiation secured unprecedented government oversight through the golden share, ensuring that no jobs are shipped overseas while bringing $11 billion in desperately needed investment to revitalize America's aging steel infrastructure. The partnership keeps U.S. Steel American-controlled while allowing access to cutting-edge Japanese technology.
Democratic narrative
The acquisition essentially hands over America's iconic steelmaker to foreign control despite cosmetic protections, raising concerns about national security and economic independence. The golden share provision creates a dangerous precedent of political interference in corporate governance, and questions remain about whether promised investments and job protections will materialize beyond political rhetoric and photo opportunities.
Karen Read Acquitted of Murder in Police Officer's Death
A Norfolk County, Mass. jury found Karen Read not guilty of second-degree murder and manslaughter charges Wednesday in the 2022 death of her boyfriend, Boston police officer John O'Keefe. This follows a retrial that lasted nearly two months with testimony from dozens of witnesses.
Read was convicted only of operating under the influence of alcohol and sentenced to one year of probation. She was acquitted of the more serious charges that could have resulted in a life sentence for second-degree murder.
The prosecution alleged Read fatally struck O'Keefe with her SUV during a drunken argument after dropping him off at a party, citing vehicle data showing her Lexus accelerating backward at 24 mph and broken taillight pieces found at the scene.
Right narrative
This verdict reflects justice for an innocent woman who was railroaded by a corrupt investigation. The prosecution's case fell apart without their disgraced lead investigator, and expert testimony proved there was no collusion at all. Read was framed by law enforcement officers who needed a convenient outsider to blame rather than investigate their colleagues.
Left narrative
This is a devastating miscarriage of justice that fails John O'Keefe and his family. The evidence clearly showed Read struck O'Keefe with her SUV after a night of heavy drinking, as supported by vehicle data, broken taillight debris, and her admissions at the scene. Celebrity lawyers and conspiracy theories shouldn't override solid forensic evidence.
Trump Denies Report He Approved Plan to Attack Iran
On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump denied a Wall Street Journal report from the day before that claimed he had privately signed off on striking Iran, stating that the Journal had "no idea" what his personal thoughts were. He further clarified that there was a "substantial chance of negotiations" and he would make his decision "within two weeks."
The original report by the Journal, whose sources alleged that Trump gave instructions to U.S. military officials in the Situation Room, stated that he was holding off from delivering the final order to see if Iran would become willing to abandon its nuclear program.
Previously, Trump told reporters at the White House that he "may… [or] may not" launch an attack on Iran, adding that he would likely make a final decision "one second before it's due."
Pro-establishment narrative
Trump is playing his cards close to his chest. Given the possibility of U.S. action against Iran, the president is correct to withhold information that could give America's adversaries time to prepare for and counter U.S. strategies. In the meantime, Iran should negotiate to surrender its nuclear program to prevent the conflict from escalating further.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel's efforts against the Iranian regime are dismantling the country's offensive infrastructure one step at a time. The latest strikes on the Arak reactor and a nuclear weapons facility have significantly set back the regime's nuclear program and its ability to strike Israeli civilians. Israel will wage its campaign until Iran no longer poses a threat to Israeli security.
Pro-Iran narrative
The Islamic Republic of Iran has never kowtowed to U.S. pressure and will not start to do so now. Trump's belligerent rhetoric and shameful threats towards Iran and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei only strengthen Iran's resolve not to negotiate or acquiesce to an unfavorable peace under duress. Iran will instead respond to any threat or action against it in equal measure.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Iran will attack U.S. sites in Iraq before August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Resumes Student Visas With Social Media Screening Rule
The U.S. State Department announced Wednesday it is restarting the suspended student visa process for foreign applicants, but now requires all applicants to make their social media accounts public for government review by consular officers.
Consular officers will examine posts and messages for content deemed hostile to the United States, its government, culture, institutions, or founding principles, with refusal to provide access potentially resulting in visa rejection.
The Trump administration temporarily halted student visa interviews in May while preparing expanded social media screening measures, leaving students worldwide anxiously waiting to secure appointments before the academic year begins.
Pro-establishment narrative
Enhanced student screening protects U.S. national security by identifying potentially hostile individuals before they enter the country. The comprehensive vetting ensures proper screening of every person attempting to visit America, addressing legitimate concerns about foreign students who may harbor anti-American sentiments or engage in activities contrary to U.S. interests.
Establishment-critical narrative
This draconian policy transforms consular officers into censors and will inevitably chill legitimate political speech both inside and outside the United States. It is extremely harmful for the U.S. to be eroding its long and enriching tradition of welcoming international students — this will be detrimental to the social fabric and economy of the United States.
Nerd narrative
There's a 42% chance that in 2050, at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DRC and Rwanda Sign Preliminary Peace Deal
On Wednesday, technical teams representing the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a provisional peace agreement, witnessed by the United States, aimed at ending the conflict in the eastern DRC.
A joint statement issued by the three governments stated that the agreement followed "three days of constructive dialogue regarding political, security, and economic interests," building upon a Declaration of Principles signed on April 25.
The draft treaty includes provisions for territorial integrity, ending hostilities, demobilizing non-state armed groups, establishing a Joint Security Coordination Mechanism, refugees, humanitarian access, and creating a regional economic integration framework.
Narrative A
This agreement is a breakthrough in DRC-Rwanda relations. After days of meticulous negotiation, the treaty settles all areas of contention, from territorial integrity to the status of refugees, while fostering closer ties between the two countries via economic integration and the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism. Combined, the treaty will bring a troubled region closer to peace and harmony.
Narrative B
While the agreement is welcome, to truly secure peace, the U.S. has to be willing to invest in it. By funding local projects to develop infrastructure and support livelihoods, as well as by providing security, the U.S. can change incentive structures to promote peace and discourage conflict. Otherwise, the lack of material difference will cause this agreement to fail like those before it.
Nerd narrative
There is a 61% that the Democratic Republic of Congo will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina Lifts Ban on Semiautomatic Weapons for Civilians
Argentina's President Javier Milei has signed a decree on Wednesday allowing civilians to purchase and possess semiautomatic weapons under a special control regime, reversing a ban put in place in 1995 during the Carlos Menem administration.
Legitimate users of firearms — i.e., those who prove established sporting or other lawful uses and meet other objective conditions that the country's agency of controlled materials may establish — can now request a permit to acquire and possess semiautomatic rifles, carbines, and guns with detachable magazines of .22 LR caliber or above.
Until now, these weapons were reserved for the Argentine armed forces, with exceptions only possible with explicit authorization by the country's defense ministry.
Left narrative
These gun reforms are reckless and dangerous, coming at a time when one in every two intentional homicides in Argentina involves firearms. Argentina's overwhelmed regulatory agency does not have enough inspectors to control the entire national territory, creating massive risks for weapons to be diverted to illegal markets or organized crime groups.
Right narrative
Semiautomatic weapons are legitimate tools for sporting purposes and self-defense, and ones that have long been deliberately misrepresented as assault weapons for fear-mongering purposes. Unlike fully automatic military weapons, they only fire one round per trigger pull. Law-abiding citizens deserve the right to protect themselves with effective firearms.
Nerd narrative
There's a 77% chance that Javier Milei will be reelected as president of Argentina before Jan. 1, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thai Prime Minister Faces Coalition Collapse After Leaked Cambodia Call
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government faces potential collapse after a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen prompted the conservative Bhumjaithai party to withdraw from her coalition on Wednesday amidst public anger.
In the leaked June 15 call, Paetongtarn addressed Hun Sen as "uncle" and criticized a Thai army commander as being part of "the other side," describing him as someone who "just wants to look cool" while discussing border tensions between the countries.
The withdrawal of Bhumjaithai's 69 members of parliament leaves Paetongtarn's coalition with only 261 seats in the 500-member parliament, creating a slim majority that could collapse if additional coalition partners defect from the government.
Opposition narrative
This leaked call exposes Paetongtarn's fundamental weakness and inexperience in handling national security matters. Her casual dismissal of military commanders while kowtowing to a foreign leader demonstrates she's unfit to lead Thailand during this critical border crisis. This government continues to grow more unpopular by the day, and change is needed.
Pro-government narrative
Thailand's prime minister was conducting legitimate diplomacy to prevent military escalation with Cambodia, using negotiation tactics to defuse tensions. Her critics are exploiting this private conversation to destabilize a democratically elected government for political gain. Paetongtarn must be able to conduct diplomacy without the threat of a military coup, a sad possibility in Thailand.
'OpenAI Files' Report Details Governance, Safety Concerns
The Midas Project and Tech Oversight Project released their "OpenAI Files" on Wednesday, documenting governance practices, leadership integrity, and organizational culture concerns at OpenAI through over 200 sources, including employee testimonies and corporate disclosures.
It highlights OpenAI's planned restructuring from its original nonprofit structure, which capped investor profits at 100x returns, to a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation that would remove profit limitations and potentially reduce nonprofit board authority over company decisions.
It also includes a collection of testimonies from former OpenAI employees, with the report quoting co-founder Ilya Sutskever as stating, "I don't think Sam is the guy who should have the finger on the button for AGI [artificial general intelligence]," and former CTO Mira Murati as saying she didn't feel comfortable with Altman leading to AGI.
Techno-skeptic narrative
This report lays bare Sam Altman's deceitful empire, built on fabricated titles, hidden profits, and silenced whistleblowers. Compiled from public records and ex-employee accounts, it exposes his unethical pivot from OpenAI as an altruistic nonprofit to a profit-driven behemoth. Altman's brazen lies erode trust in the future of AI, revealing a man and a company unfit to steer its power.
Techno-optimist narrative
While no one would deny that OpenAI has faced bumps in the road, small setbacks are all they are. OpenAI remains a global AI leader, driving prosperity through groundbreaking systems like ChatGPT and o3. Already boosting productivity, AI's takeoff is here, promising a richer 2030s for everyone. Despite cynical claims from critics, Altman's vision, while imperfect, aims to align innovation with humanity.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2.5% chance that OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic will announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.