Canada: Liberals Win Fourth Term as Carney Defeats Poilievre
Mark Carney led Canada's Liberal Party to a fourth consecutive election victory on Monday, securing enough seats to form a minority government with, as of Tuesday afternoon, 169 out of 343 ridings, while Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have won 144 seats.
The election — with a voter turnout of 68.29%, the highest since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's first win in 2015 — saw the Liberals win just shy of 44% of the popular vote, compared to 41% for the Conservatives. With 172 seats needed for a majority in parliament, Carney is set to form a minority government. Two parliamentary races may face a recount.
As he congratulated Carney, Poilievre acknowledged the Conservatives' efforts fell short. "It takes time. It takes work, and that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result the next time," he said.
Liberal Party narrative
The Liberals pulled off a miraculous political resurrection by focusing on the existential threat posed by Trump's coercion. Carney's experience as a central banker made him uniquely qualified to navigate this crisis moment, allowing him to position himself as a break from Trudeau while maintaining Liberal values. The Americans want to break Canada so they can own it, and Carney's leadership represents the best defense against this unprecedented threat to Canadian sovereignty.
Conservative Party narrative
This election should have been about the cost-of-living crisis and housing affordability problems that have worsened during a lost Liberal decade. Instead, Carney successfully distracted voters from domestic issues by exploiting anti-Trump sentiment and fear. The Conservatives made significant gains with 41% of the popular vote, showing Canadians are deeply frustrated with Liberal governance but were swayed by external factors rather than the real economic challenges facing everyday citizens.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that the U.S. will annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
IBM Pledges $150B US Investment in Computing Leadership
IBM this week announced plans to invest $150 billion in America in five years, including over $30 billion in R&D to advance its U.S. manufacturing of mainframe and quantum computers, strengthening its role as a leader in advanced computing and AI.
IBM chief Arvind Krishna emphasized its 114-year focus on U.S. jobs and manufacturing. He said this would ensure IBM remains central to the "most advanced computing and AI capabilities" while fueling the U.S. economy.
IBM makes its mainframe computers in Poughkeepsie, New York, and claims these systems underpin over 70% of the world's transactions by value, serving as the technological backbone for the U.S. and global economies.
Narrative A
After years as a slumbering giant, IBM has roared back to life with a staggering $150 billion commitment to America's technological future. The computing titan is betting big on quantum supremacy and AI innovation. This audacious reinvention signals not just IBM's renaissance, but potentially America's reclamation of technological dominance in an increasingly competitive global landscape.
Narrative B
In the shadow of a $150 billion American investment pledge, IBM's fundamental weaknesses remain exposed — a cloud computing afterthought commanding a mere 2% market share while tech titans dominate. Despite its software pivot, IBM's anemic growth, sluggish consulting segment, and vulnerability to economic headwinds reveal an uncomfortable truth; this is less a renaissance than a desperate bid for relevance.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) will reach smartphone-level market penetration by May 2055, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Media Freedom 'Crumbling' in Europe
A report by the Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties), based on input from 43 human rights organizations in 21 EU member states, claims that media freedom across the EU is facing an "existential battle."
The report cites high media ownership concentration in Croatia, France, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden, with large segments of such media allegedly controlled by wealthy individuals or families.
It names Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Malta, Slovenia, and Spain as countries where governments reportedly exert influence over national media by allocating state advertising funds that favor government-friendly outlets.
Narrative A
The EU remains a global leader in defending media freedom. With the European Media Freedom Act now in force, journalists are better protected from interference, surveillance, and censorship. Editorial independence, transparency in ownership, and safeguards for public service media are all being strengthened. Europe is not perfect, but it is acting, and democracy is stronger for it.
Narrative B
Media freedom in the EU is crumbling. Journalists continue to face threats, violence, and censorship as state funds propped up loyal outlets and public officials dodged accountability. As ownership concentrates and transparency fades, the press risks becoming a puppet, not a watchdog. Without urgent action, democracy in Europe is on borrowed time.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be 86 countries designated as "Free" in 2028 as per Freedom House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
House Passes Bill to Make Revenge Porn Illegal
The U.S. House voted 409-2 Monday to pass the TAKE IT DOWN Act — a bipartisan bill that criminalizes the nonconsensual sharing of sexually explicit images, including AI-generated deepfakes — sending the legislation to President Donald Trump's desk for approval.
The legislation, introduced by Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and supported by Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), and Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Penn.), requires social media platforms and websites to remove such content within 48 hours of being notified by victims.
First Lady Melania Trump has advocated for the bill, which carries penalties of "prison, a fine, or both."
Establishment-critical narrative
While Congress may frame this as a measure to protect vulnerable women, the legislation is a Trojan horse that ultimately gives the government power to censor speech, not just illegal porn. Laws against nonconsensual content exist, and Congress should strengthen those instead of adding new restrictive powers to its arsenal.
Pro-establishment narrative
The bill isn't some abstract, power-grabbing piece of legislation — it was formulated in response to two young girls' experiences with deep-fake porn, and the countless other people whose lives were ruined by this technology. The dangers of nonconsensual porn are widespread, which is why this bill was a bipartisan effort receiving almost unanimous support.
Cynical narrative
While it's important to critique questionable online content legislation, this issue also exposes broader bipartisan failures on issues like the legal porn industry and its links to sex trafficking. Despite years of knowing about these links, not to mention porn's other consequences like addiction and physical and mental health effects, politicians, notably Republicans, have done little to prioritize children over companies and criminals.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that 35 states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes before 2026, according to the Metaculu prediction community.
Hong Kong Frees First Four Lawmakers in Subversion Case
Former pro-democracy lawmakers — Claudia Mo, Kwok Ka-ki, Jeremy Tam, and Gary Fan — were released from Hong Kong prisons on Tuesday after serving four years and two months for conspiracy to commit subversion. They are the first of 45 convicted activists in the "Hong Kong 47" case to complete their sentences.
The lawmakers were arrested in 2021 under the National Security Law for organizing an unofficial primary election in 2020 that drew 610,000 voters and aimed to select opposition candidates for legislative elections, which authorities later postponed, citing COVID-19 concerns.
During the trial, prosecutors argued the activists had plotted to paralyze the government by winning a legislative majority and using it to block government budgets, which judges ruled would have undermined government authority and created a constitutional crisis.
Anti-China narrative
This case highlights the severe consequences pro-democracy advocates face for exercising their democratic rights. The harsh sentences under the Beijing-imposed National Security Law highlight how authorities have systematically dismantled Hong Kong's civil liberties and crushed legitimate political opposition, effectively ending the Western-style freedoms promised to the city for 50 years.
Pro-China narrative
The National Security Law has successfully restored stability to Hong Kong following the chaotic and destructive protests of 2019. It is necessary to maintain order and ensure the proper functioning of the government under the "one country, two systems" framework. Anyone threatening to paralyze the government and create a constitutional crisis will be detained and forced to face Hong Kong's legal system.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Hong Kong will stop being a Special Administrative Region of China by November 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canadian Election: Conservative Leader Poilievre Loses Ottawa-Area Seat
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton to Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy by approximately 3,800 votes in yesterday's federal election, ending his over two-decade tenure as a Member of Parliament that began in 2004.
The loss marked a setback for Poilievre, who had won the riding seven times and was leading the Liberals nationally by as much as 25 points in polls at the end of last year. His party was seen as a frontrunner until Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader in March.
Fanjoy, a political newcomer and businessman who had been campaigning in the riding since 2023, secured 42,374 votes (50.6%) compared to Poilievre's 38,581 votes (46.1%), with the riding seeing nearly 80% voter turnout and the highest advance poll participation in the country.
Liberal Party narrative
Poilievre's defeat reflects voters' rejection of his Trump-style populism and "Canada First" rhetoric, which alienated moderate voters, particularly public servants in his Ottawa-area riding who feared job cuts under a Conservative government. The Liberal campaign successfully linked Poilievre to Donald Trump at a time when Canadians were concerned about Trump's tariff threats and comments about annexation.
Conservative Party narrative
The Conservative loss was more a strategic misstep than a rejection of conservative ideas. Despite gaining seats and achieving their highest vote share since 1988, the party focused its pre-election campaign on Trudeau — who resigned in March — leaving Poilievre without his intended opponent. Carney’s rise, combined with Trump’s trade war threats, reshaped the race, galvanizing the Left and creating a wave of opposition the Conservatives were powerless to stop.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Amazon Denies Plans to Display Trump Tariff Costs
Online retailer Amazon on Tuesday denied a report that it planned to display how much of a product's price was attributable to new tariffs. In response to criticism from the White House, Amazon spokesperson Tim Doyle wrote that while "Amazon Haul" had considered listing import charges on certain products, the plan "was never approved and is not going to happen."
This comes shortly after Punchbowl News reported the alleged plan, which White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called a "hostile and political act" during Tuesday's morning briefing.
Following the report, U.S. President Donald Trump personally called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.
Republican narrative
Amazon will be wise to not go through with its plan, which was obviously politically motivated. Amazon never displayed costs when inflation hit record highs under the Biden administration. If Amazon wants to label products, it should make it clearer which ones are made in China so Americans can make sure they're buying American products instead.
Democratic narrative
American consumers deserve to know how much higher prices are going to be as retailers decide whether to pass the costs of the tariffs along to buyers or shrink their own profits. It's not a hostile act to let Americans know what effect Trump's tariffs are having on costs; it's just a bit of transparency the White House should consider using.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the average tariff on goods entering the United States in Q4 2025 will be 8.24%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Michigan Democrat Files Impeachment Articles Against Trump
U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) on Monday introduced seven articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, accusing him of "a sweeping abuse of power, flagrant violations of the Constitution, and acts of tyranny that undermine American democracy and threaten the rule of law."
The impeachment articles include charges of obstruction of justice, usurpation of appropriations power, abuse of trade powers, violation of First Amendment rights, creation of an unlawful office, bribery and corruption, and tyrannical overreach. Thanedar specifically cites Trump's refusal to comply with a unanimous Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruling ordering the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man deported to El Salvador.
Thanedar, who represents a Detroit-area district and has served in Congress since 2023, announced the impeachment effort in a video posted to social media, stating: "Donald Trump has already done real damage to our democracy, but defying a unanimous 9-0 Supreme Court ruling, that has to be the final straw."
Democratic narrative
Trump must be held accountable for his unconstitutional actions. He has repeatedly violated the separation of powers and has defied a unanimous SCOTUS ruling. His administration's refusal to return Abrego Garcia despite court orders demonstrates a dangerous pattern of executive overreach that threatens the foundations of American democracy.
Republican narrative
This stunt is a desperate political ploy from a congressman facing serious primary challenges. Thanedar is clearly trying to save his political career by pandering to his base with an impeachment effort that has zero chance of success in a Republican-controlled Congress rather than focusing on real issues affecting his constituents.
Nerd narrative
There's an 8% chance that ABC News' 538 will report that Trump has a positive net favorability rate on Dec. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israeli Government Reverses Decision to Remove Internal Security Chief
Israel's government approved on Tuesday a cabinet resolution to reverse a decision made last month to sack Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar after the internal security head announced on Monday that he would resign from his position in June.
Bar said on Monday that every public servant who failed to stop Hamas' Oct. 7 attack needed to bow their heads "humbly before those who were killed, or wounded, or taken hostage, and act accordingly." Bar had accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of demanding excessive personal loyalty.
Israel's Supreme Court blocked the government's move to fire Bar, with Netanyahu presenting an affidavit to the court over the weekend accusing Bar of being a liar. Bar has called for institutional protections to be implemented for the next Shin Bet chief.
Pro-establishment narrative
The return to war will not save the hostages. Netanyahu's move to sack Bar only further destabilized Israel's institutions, with the resumption of the war in Gaza aimed to buy time. Both sides need to make concessions so that the ceasefire can be fully implemented and the hostages are returned.
Pro-Israel narrative
The Shin Bet has behaved like an army within an army, and Ronen Bar is a manifestation of this institutional rot. Bar has worked against Israel's democratically elected government, and he must leave his position. Whoever takes Bar's position must be appointed from outside the organization's network.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Netanyahu is resuming the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza to ensure his political survival. Facing corruption charges alongside a weakened governing coalition, Netanyahu can only survive through endless war and genocide. Indeed, Netanyahu is not just a danger to Palestinians, but a danger to the world.