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04 April 2025

Daily Newsletter

South Korea's Court Upholds President Yoon's Impeachment

Photo: South Korean Presidential Office/Handout/Getty Images News via via Getty Images

The Facts

  • On Friday, South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously voted to remove impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol from office. This is the second time in the nation's history that a sitting president has been ousted through impeachment.

  • The impeachment stemmed from Yoon's Dec. 3 declaration of martial law, during which he deployed troops to the National Assembly and attempted to prevent lawmakers from voting to overturn his decree. However, the decree was lifted after just six hours.

  • The court's eight justices ruled that Yoon had violated the Constitution by declaring martial law without legitimate cause and that his actions constituted a grave betrayal of public trust. Yoon said he was "truly sorry and heartbroken" for failing to meet the public's expectations.

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The Spin

Narrative A

The martial law declaration was necessary to counter what appeared to be a parliamentary dictatorship, with the opposition-controlled National Assembly paralyzing the government through repeated impeachment attempts of officials and budget cuts. Yoon acted to protect democratic institutions from what he perceived as anti-state forces sympathetic to North Korea.

Narrative B

Yoon's actions represented a grave violation of democratic principles and an attempted authoritarian takeover that echoed South Korea's dark past of military dictatorship. His deployment of troops to the National Assembly and attempts to prevent lawmakers from voting demonstrated a clear abuse of power that warranted his removal from office.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that North and South Korea will be at war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Rwanda Hosts Africa's First AI Global Summit

Photo: Rwanda Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution via X

The Facts

  • The first Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) on Africa kicked off on Thursday in the Rwandan capital, Kigali, bringing together over 1,000 delegates from 95 countries to discuss the role of AI in transforming the continent's economic future

  • Addressing the two-day summit, Rwandan President Paul Kagame argued that AI is driving some of the "most groundbreaking innovations" of the modern age, but that the rise of this "force for good" is being overshadowed by geopolitical competition.

  • While the Rwandan Minister of Information and Communication Technology, Paula Ingabire, stressed the need to balance AI innovation and regulation, Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe cautioned that AI should not only serve "a connected urban minority."

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The Spin

Narrative A

With its young, fast-growing workforce and increasing technological capabilities, Africa is poised to become a major player in the global AI ecosystem. The continent's AI market is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 27% until 2030, demonstrating tremendous potential for economic change and innovation.

Narrative B

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the world's least prepared region for AI development due to inadequate digital infrastructure, limited economic integration, and insufficient ethical frameworks. Countries like South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Chad score lowest globally on digital infrastructure readiness.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that a major AI lab will claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Global Markets Plunge as Trump's Tariffs Sparks Trade War

Photo: Kazuhiro Nogi/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have triggered the worst stock market sell-off since 2020, with the S&P 500 falling 4.84%, the Dow Jones dropping 3.98%, and the Nasdaq plunging 5.97% on Thursday's closing — with analysts predicting more than $4.9 trillion in lost market value.

  • The market volatility continued on Friday and followed Trump's Wednesday announcement of sweeping tariffs on over 180 countries, ranging from 10% to 95%, with China facing 34%, Japan and South Korea 25%, and the UK 10%. A 25% tariff was imposed on all foreign-made cars.

  • Asian markets also saw significant declines on Friday: Japan's Nikkei fell 2.75%, Australia's ASX 200 dropped 2.44%, and South Korea's Kospi declined by 0.86%.

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The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs have ignited widespread global economic turmoil, prompting JP Morgan to raise the likelihood of a recession to 60%. These aggressive measures jeopardize decades of free trade progress, risking a global stagflation crisis. This ill-conceived decision has disrupted supply chains, driven up consumer prices, and wiped out trillions in market value.

Pro-Trump narrative

While pessimists predict disaster, Trump's tariffs can trigger "expansionary uncertainty" in competitive markets. Unlike traditional assumptions, businesses aren't stagnating — they're racing to adapt by reshoring production and rebuilding supply chains. This short-term turbulence is a necessary process that will ultimately yield extraordinary growth as manufacturing revives and trade relationships are recalibrated.

Nerd narrative

There is a 11% chance that the U.S. Congress will pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Pentagon Launches Investigation Into Hegseth's Use of Signal App

Photo: Kiyoshi Ota/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Pentagon's acting inspector general announced an investigation into Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's use of the Signal messaging app on Thursday.

  • It comes after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of the Atlantic, was inadvertently added to a group on the platform in which Hegseth and other top national security officials from President Donald Trump's administration relayed plans to strike Houthi targets in Yemen.

  • While the messages contained contemporaneous updates including launch times of F-18 fighter jets and the types of weapons packages to be used, Hegseth, the White House, and other Trump officials have since insisted that classified information wasn't disclosed.

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The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This is clearly a witch hunt targeting Hegseth who was not even responsible for the journalist being inadvertently added to the message chain. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has taken responsibility for the error. Besides, none of the messages even included classified information.

Anti-Trump narrative

These messages included precise launch times, weapons used, and other sensitive information. National security experts have testified that this type of information is typically classified and had it fallen into the wrong hands — this reckless act could have put U.S. service members in danger.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16.8% chance that Pete Hegseth will be the first member of President Donald Trump's cabinet to leave office, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Claims Iran Wants Direct Talks as Tensions Mount

Photo: SAUL LOEB/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence on Thursday that Iran may be ready for direct nuclear talks, moving away from its previous stance of only accepting negotiations through mediators as Tehran was feeling "vulnerable."

  • Trump's statement followed his letter to the Iranian leadership in early March 2025, delivered through the United Arab Emirates (UAE), proposing direct negotiations while simultaneously maintaining maximum pressure sanctions.

  • Iran responded to Trump's letter through Oman, rejecting direct talks but signaling openness to indirect negotiations, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasizing diplomatic engagement while warning against military options.

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The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump is right that only direct talks will prove effective and result in a better U.S.-Iran understanding, with military options remaining an option if diplomacy fails. A strong regional military presence serves as leverage for successful talks by demonstrating a willingness to act if necessary should Tehran fail to halt its illicit nuclear weapons program.

Anti-Trump narrative

Iran believes that negotiations should never be conducted under threats and maximum-pressure sanctions, yet it remains open to indirect talks. Ironically, while Trump claims he wants to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, it is precisely Washington's military build-up and aggressive behavior that could lead Tehran to decide to build nuclear weapons.

Nerd narrative

There is a 56% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israeli Strike Kills Hamas Commander in Lebanon

Photo: Mahmoud Zayyat/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • An Israeli drone strike killed Hamas commander Hassan Farhat as well as his son and daughter in the coastal Lebanese city of Sidon early Friday, straining a cease-fire that ended last year’s war between Israel and Hezbollah.

  • Israel accused Hassan Farhat of orchestrating rocket attacks on northern Israel, which killed an Israeli soldier and injured others in February 2024. Hamas condemned the assassination and confirmed Farhat was a commander in its armed wing, with his son also being affiliated with the group.

  • This strike follows recent Israeli operations in Lebanon — including a Tuesday attack on Beirut's dense southern suburbs that killed a Hezbollah-Palestinian liaison officer in the second raid on Lebanon's capital since the November cease-fire. In February, Israel also killed a Hamas military official in a drone strike in Sidon.

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The Spin

Pro-Israel narrative

The elimination of Hamas commander Farhat was a necessary counter-terrorism operation targeting a terrorist responsible for attacks against Israeli civilians and soldiers. The precision strike successfully neutralized a significant threat to Israel's security, demonstrating the military's capability to conduct targeted operations against its foes in foreign territory.

Anti-Israel narrative

The Israeli attack on a residential area in Sidon represents a flagrant violation of Lebanese sovereignty and international agreements, resulting in civilian casualties like Farhat's daughter. These strikes only destabilize the region and undermine the cease-fire, threatening to escalate tensions between Lebanon and Israel.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

EU, Central Asia Agree to Strengthen Relations at First Ever Summit

Photo: Vyacheslav Oseledko\/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The first EU-Central Asia summit, held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on Friday, saw leaders from the EU and the five Central Asian nations (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) establish a strategic partnership and announce a €12 billion investment package.

  • The EU currently stands as Central Asia's second-largest trading partner, accounting for 22.6% of the region's combined foreign trade in 2023. It is also the region's largest foreign investor, with over 40% of investment in Central Asia originating from the EU.

  • The summit's agenda focused on multiple areas of cooperation, including strengthening multilateralism, addressing security challenges, enhancing economic ties, engaging on energy and climate initiatives, and bolstering people-to-people contacts under the new Global Gateway strategy.

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The Spin

Pro-Europe narrative

Closer EU-Central Asia ties are a strategic necessity. As global power dynamics shift, the EU offers Central Asia a vital alternative to overreliance on Russia and China. The Trans-Caspian Corridor can unlock economic potential, while EU investment in green energy and digital connectivity promotes sustainable growth. With shared interests in security and stability, deeper cooperation will foster prosperity and resilience across Eurasia.

Establishment-critical narrative

The EU claims to champion democracy and human rights, yet it cozies up to Central Asian autocrats for energy and trade. Leaders like von der Leyen and Costa ignore repression, political prisoners, and media crackdowns while seeking new gas deals. By turning a blind eye to abuses, the EU sacrifices its principles for economic gain, eroding its credibility as a defender of democracy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that a state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

New Zealand Committee Rejects Treaty Principles Bill

Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In a report released Friday morning, the New Zealand Parliament's Justice Committee has recommended against proceeding with the Treaty Principles Bill after receiving over 307,000 submissions, marking the largest response to proposed legislation in New Zealand's parliamentary history.

  • Analysis of submissions showed overwhelming opposition, with 90% against the bill, 8% in support, and 2% expressing no definitive view. Oral submissions from 529 people over 79 hours reflected similar proportions with 85% opposed.

  • The bill, introduced by the conservative ACT Party, sought to provide a clear legal interpretation of the Treaty of Waitangi, New Zealand's founding document. It focused on defining three principles — civil government, Māori rights, and equality before the law.

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Treaty Principles Bill is a divisive attempt to rewrite New Zealand’s foundational document. With strong opposition from Māori groups, legal experts, and the public, it risks undermining the Treaty’s intent and Māori collective rights recognized by courts, the Waitangi Tribunal, and international law. Its rushed process and disregard for the Treaty’s principles threaten social cohesion, judicial independence, and New Zealand’s international reputation.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Treaty Principles Bill is a bold step to clarify the Treaty of Waitangi, ensuring equality for all New Zealanders. Despite opposition from left-wing parties, the bill seeks to define the Treaty's principles in law, ending divisive interpretations that give some groups special privileges. ACT remains committed to equal rights, and this bill is key to advancing a fair and unified future for all Kiwis.

See sources

Trump Fires High-Level National Security Officials

Photo: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • President Donald Trump fired multiple National Security Council (NSC) staff following a meeting with right-wing influencer Laura Loomer in the Oval Office, in which she reportedly presented opposition research on employees she deemed disloyal to the administration.

  • The White House reportedly dismissed U.S. National Security Agency Director Gen. Tim Haugh and his deputy Wendy Noble on Thursday. Other dismissed officials included Brian Walsh (senior director for intelligence), Thomas Boodry (senior director for legislative affairs), David Feith (senior director for technology and national security), and Maggie Dougherty (senior director for international organizations).

  • The firings occurred amid ongoing scrutiny of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, who recently faced criticism for accidentally adding Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat discussing Yemen military operations.

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The Spin

Republican narrative

The firings were necessary to remove disloyal staffers with establishment ties who potentially undermined President Trump's agenda and national security. The dismissed officials had connections to "never Trumpers" and demonstrated insufficient loyalty to the administration's America First policies.

Democratic narrative

The terminations represent a horrifying purge of experienced national security professionals based on conspiracy theories and personal vendettas, potentially hampering the NSC's ability to function effectively and setting back the administration's foreign policy capabilities by months. This is a shocking backslide of US national security.

See sources

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