China Sets 2025 GDP Growth Target at Around 5%
China has established a GDP growth target of approximately 5% for 2025 — the same goal as 2024 — and set the deficit-to-GDP ratio at 4%, up from 3% last year.
During the opening session of the National People's Congress on Wednesday, Premier Li Qiang said the government plans to issue ¥1.3T (180B USD) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, an increase from ¥1T in 2024, and raise the special local government bonds quota to ¥4.4T from ¥3.9T.
Additionally, Beijing plans to create more than 12M urban jobs in 2025 — maintaining the surveyed urban unemployment rate target at 5.5% — and set a lower consumer price index target of around 2%, down from 3% in 2024.
Pro-China narrative
The 5% growth target demonstrates China's economic resilience and potential, positioning the country among the world's fastest-growing major economies while maintaining policy continuity and stability despite external challenges.
Anti-China narrative
The ambitious growth target faces significant headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property sector troubles, and escalating trade tensions with the US, requiring substantial stimulus measures and structural reforms to achieve the desired results.
Nerd narrative
There's a 59% chance that China's GDP will exceed the US GDP in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
BlackRock-led Group Buys Panama Canal Ports from Hong Kong Firm
CK Hutchison Holdings, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate, has agreed to sell its stake in Panama Ports Company to a BlackRock-led consortium in a deal valued at $22.8B, which includes the strategic ports of Balboa and Cristobal at opposite ends of the Panama Canal.
The transaction will give the BlackRock consortium control over 43 ports across 23 countries, with the buyers receiving a 90% stake in Panama Ports Company, while the deal excludes any ports in mainland China or Hong Kong.
The sale comes amid pressure from the Trump administration, which has claimed that Chinese influence over the canal poses national security risks, though both Panama and China have consistently denied any Chinese control over canal operations.
Republican narrative
The acquisition represents a strategic victory for Pres. Donald Trump and American strategic interests by removing Chinese influence from critical infrastructure — enhancing national security, and protecting US maritime interests in a vital shipping route that handles 40% of US container traffic. The deal demonstrates the effectiveness of diplomatic and economic pressure in advancing American strategic objectives.
Democratic narrative
The transaction is purely commercial in nature and unrelated to Trump's bad faith political pressure, resulting from a competitive bidding process that serves shareholders' interests. The previous port operations were never under Chinese government control, and claims of Chinese interference in canal operations are unfounded, as the canal remains a neutral international waterway under Panamanian sovereignty.
Nerd narrative
There is a 13% chance that a Nicaragua Canal will be complete by 2051, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Treasury Reportedly Planning Billions in Welfare Cuts
The Treasury is reportedly preparing to present billions in welfare and departmental spending cuts to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on Wednesday, with the £9.9B in fiscal headroom provided in Reeves's budget believed to have been wiped out since October.
The Treasury's proposed cuts are reportedly expected to target health-related benefits and save the government an extra £5B, with Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall expected to outline reforms in an upcoming speech.
Recent data shows the UK employment rate at 74.9%, with unemployment at 4.4% alongside 819K job vacancies, while 21.5% of all 15 to 64-year-olds are labeled as economically inactive.
Left narrative
Labour's potential welfare cuts could be a devastating blow to the most vulnerable — targeting disabled and chronically ill people instead of exploring fairer options, like a wealth tax on the rich. These cuts risk worsening inequality and punishing those who are already struggling, revealing a skewed priority system that puts the wealthy first. Genuine reform should protect, not abandon, society's most disadvantaged.
Right narrative
The UK has experienced an unsustainable rise in benefits costs since the COVID pandemic. Welfare reform is essential for long-term stability, redirecting funds to critical areas like defense. Cutting benefits encourages scroungers to reenter the workforce, boosting the economy and reducing the strain on taxpayers. These reforms aren't about punishing the vulnerable but ensuring taxpayer resources rightly benefit society as a whole.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that the UK will achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Germany to Relax Debt Brake, Boost Defense Spending
Germany's likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz, of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, announced on Tuesday that an agreement has been reached with his prospective coalition partner, the Social Democrats, to put forward plans to relax the country's constitutional debt brake to boost defense and infrastructure spending.
The fiscal expansion proposal to be presented before the Bundestag next week would reform the rules to exempt any defense spending that exceeds 1% of GDP from the 0.35% limit, create an off-budget €500B infrastructure fund that would run over 10 years, and allow its states to take on debt through up to 0.35% of their GDP.
Germany enshrined the debt brake in its Basic Law in 2009, specifically in Article 109, paragraph 3, on budget management in the Federation and the Länder, and in Article 115 on limits of borrowing, against the backdrop of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a much-welcomed fiscal U-turn that represents a necessary and bold response to transform the outlook of the country's infrastructure and economy as well as of European defense — and markets' response illustrates that. Germany has been on the edge of a technical recession for years now, it's about time for a fiscal stimulus.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's certain that Germany must increase military spending and restructure its economy — and it's indeed rational to stop being the only fiscally responsible country in the EU — but this shift will hurt eurozone as its anchor is on track to join the high-debt club. Yields on German debt are already on the rise, and trouble is coming for Europe.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new chancellor by April 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Halts Flow of Intelligence to Ukraine
CIA Director John Ratcliffe on Wednesday confirmed that the US has suspended both intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries to Ukraine following a contentious Oval Office meeting between Ukraine's Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Pres. Donald Trump.
The intelligence pause affects crucial targeting data that American spy agencies previously supplied to Kyiv for launching US-provided weapons and Ukrainian-made long-range drones at Russian targets, significantly impacting Ukraine's military capabilities.
The suspension includes restrictions on time-sensitive intelligence needed for precision strikes against movable Russian targets. Additionally, the US has reportedly blocked its allies from sharing US intelligence with Ukraine.
Republican narrative
The pause in intelligence sharing is a strategic move from the Trump administration to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table and achieve lasting peace, preventing unnecessary prolongation of the conflict and ensuring the responsible use of American resources. It's time for the US to help bring this conflict to an end — despite Zelenskyy's intransigence.
Democratic narrative
Cutting off intelligence support to Ukraine severely hampers its defensive capabilities, gives Russia a significant battlefield advantage, and represents a betrayal of a key ally that could embolden Moscow's aggression. This reckless move from Trump is damaging Ukraine's security and America's standing on the world stage.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Russia and Ukraine will announce a cease-fire before May 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
World's Largest Iceberg Runs Aground Near South Georgia Island
A23a, the world's largest iceberg — weighing nearly 1T tonnes and measuring approximately 1.3K square miles (twice the size of Greater London) — has run aground about 50 miles off the coast of South Georgia Island in the South Atlantic Ocean.
The iceberg calved from Antarctica's Filchner Ice Shelf in 1986 and remained stationary in the Weddell Sea for over 30 years before beginning its northward journey in 2020. It was temporarily trapped in a Taylor Column current in late 2024 before continuing its path.
The British Antarctic Survey reports that the iceberg appears stable for now but is expected to eventually break up and melt. Scientists are closely monitoring its impact on local ecosystems and marine life through satellite tracking and direct observations.
Narrative A
A23a's grounding is a unique opportunity to study how massive icebergs affect marine ecosystems and ocean productivity, potentially offering insights into the Southern Ocean's natural nutrient distribution systems and carbon sequestration processes.
Narrative B
The unprecedented scale of ice shelf mass loss since 2000 signals a concerning trend in Antarctic ice stability, suggesting that while calving is natural, the frequency and scale of such events may be accelerating due to human-induced climate change.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Thwaites Eastern ice shelf will collapse by May 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Delivers Speech to Congress
US Pres. Donald Trump delivered the longest congressional address in modern history on Tuesday, speaking for approximately 100 minutes to highlight his administration's first six weeks in office and declare that "America is back."
During the speech, Democratic lawmakers held up placards reading "liar" and "false." Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was forcibly removed from the chamber after disrupting the speech by shouting and waving his cane, reportedly marking the first such ejection in modern history.
Trump spoke at length about his trade policies, following his new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, which caused market turbulence. In his speech, he said, "There may be a little disturbance."
Republican narrative
Trump's address was a speech for the ages, boldly prioritizing American citizens over foreigners and law-abiding citizens over criminals. He cited his border security successes and honored victims of migrant crime, showcasing a presidency in full command. Democrats, with their silly paddles and the ejection of Rep. Al Green, looked childish and out of touch in their resistance as Trump's vision dominated.
Democratic narrative
Trump's speech was a divisive, lie-laden rant, not a historic triumph. He falsely claimed economic miracles, exaggerated border successes, and fabricated Social Security fraud to push cuts — brazen deceit exposed by fact-checks. His antagonistic jabs at Democrats only deepened the country's divide, while his tariff threats further endangered prices. He may have made himself feel good, but he was not putting Americans first.
Nerd narrative
There is a 27% chance that US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will conduct at least twice as many deportations in Fiscal Year 2025 compared to Fiscal Year 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US, Israel Reject Egypt's Gaza Reconstruction Plan
The US and Israel have rejected an Egyptian plan endorsed by the Arab League, saying that it failed to address the realities in Gaza. Israel said that Palestinians in Gaza should have the option to leave the strip, accusing Arab states of rejecting an opportunity and leveling "baseless accusations" against Israel.
US National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said that "Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance," reiterating Trump's plan to displace the population and rebuild the strip as the "Riviera of the Middle East."
Israel's foreign ministry indicated that, regardless of any proposed plan, there must be a permanent cease-fire first. Israel is currently blocking aid from entering Gaza to pressure Hamas into extending and changing the cease-fire deal that both parties agreed to in January.
Pro-establishment narrative
In contrast to Trump's irresponsible and unfeasible plans to relocate Gaza's population, Egypt's proposal may be a useful framework to move forward regarding the question of Gaza's future. Though the plan leaves out some important points, it ultimately creates a picture of a post-war and post-Hamas Gaza that would not be a serious security threat to Israel.
Pro-Israel narrative
Trump's negotiation tactics are bearing fruit, as the Arab states are now playing a proactive role in how to handle Gaza's post-war future. Still, the question of Hamas' presence in the strip and its weapons cannot be avoided, and nothing can happen until the group is eliminated. Indeed, as has been the case for some time, Hamas is the most significant obstacle to peace.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though a plan for Gaza's post-war future that does not involve the forced displacement of the strip's population is a good step, the Arab states must do more to support Palestinians. Before anything meaningful can happen, the war must end and Israeli forces must withdraw from Gaza completely. Nonetheless, the Arab states must work with Palestinians to build a plan and united front that prevents Israeli and US interference.
Nerd narrative
There's a 15% chance that the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Denies Musk's Bid to Block OpenAI For-profit Conversion
US District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers rejected Elon Musk's request for a preliminary injunction to prevent OpenAI from converting to a for-profit entity, ruling that Musk failed to demonstrate a likelihood of success on the merits of the case.
The judge offered to expedite a trial to fall 2025 to address the core contract claims, citing public interest and potential harm if an unlawful conversion occurred.
Musk, who invested approximately $45M in OpenAI between 2015 and 2018, sued the company and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Sam Altman, claiming they violated the terms of his foundational contributions to the charity and betrayed its founding nonprofit mission.
Narrative A
This ruling is a win for sanity. Musk's almost $100B acquisition — trying to buy back a nonprofit he abandoned — felt like an attempt to regain control over a situation he had neglected. OpenAI's mission thrives without his meddling, and this ruling keeps Altman free to innovate. Musk would be a problematic addition to OpenAI.
Narrative B
Altman's push to privatize OpenAI is a power grab that sidelines AI safety for profit, betraying its nonprofit roots. His $40B self-deal also undervalues the mission, while Musk's $97B bid — genius even if it fails — forces accountability by hiking costs and scrutiny for Altman. Altman is precariously veering away from safety for profit, risking a world of unchecked AI while pocketing billions from scraped content.
Nerd narrative
There is an 83% chance that a for-profit research group will be the first to develop transformative AI, compared to a 5% chance of it being developed by a nonprofit, according to the Metaculus prediction community.