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El Salvador Ends Public Funding for Political Parties
El Salvador's Legislative Assembly on Wednesday approved a constitutional reform to eliminate public funding for political parties, with 58 out of 60 lawmakers voting in favor. The voting was primarily supported by Pres. Nayib Bukele's allies.
The reform repeals Article 210 of the Constitution, removing the "political debt" system that previously provided government funding to parties based on their vote totals in elections.
The legislative change coincides with other significant changes, including the reduction of congressional seats from 84 to 60 and municipalities from 262 to 44.
Narrative A
This legislative change is a necessary step toward reducing corruption and wasteful spending of taxpayer money. Political parties should be self-sufficient and earn support through legitimate means rather than relying on government handouts. This reform will enhance transparency and reduce the influence of money in politics.
Narrative B
Removing public funding for political parties severely undermines democracy, by creating an uneven playing field that favors wealthy interests and the ruling party. Smaller parties and emerging political movements will struggle to compete effectively without state support, potentially leading to a one-party dominant system.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9% chance that El Salvador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chevron to Cut 20% of Workforce in Major Restructuring
US oil giant the Chevron Corporation on Wednesday announced plans to reduce its global workforce by 15%-20% by the end of 2026, potentially affecting up to 9K employees, as part of a broader initiative to achieve cost savings of $3B.
Company vice chairman Mark Nelson stated the changes "will improve standardization, centralization, efficiency and results.” Chevron recently relocated its headquarters from San Ramon, California to Houston.
Chevron's decision comes amid production challenges, including cost overruns in Kazakhstan, while its $53B Hess acquisition faces uncertainty due to an ongoing legal dispute with ExxonMobil over operations in Guyana.
Pro-establishment narrative
Facing headwinds of declining earnings forecasts and lagging performance behind competitors, Chevron's workforce reduction is a strategic necessity. This difficult but calculated move aims to sharpen operational efficiency and secure long-term growth.
Establishment-critical narrative
Bottom 5% layoffs are a flawed and desperate move that damage a company's viability in the long run. Creating a climate of fear, in which employees cannot trust the security of their employers, results in a worse overall performance from workers for the sake of appearing to take commercial action.
Nerd narrative
There is a 98% chance that, before 2027, a federal court of appeals will overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
75K Federal Workers Accept Trump's Controversial Buyout Deal
Approximately 75K federal employees, or around 3.3% of the 2.3M federal workforce, have accepted the Trump administration's deferred resignation program, falling short of the White House's projected 5%-10% acceptance rate.
The program, which closed on Wednesday at 7 pm ET, offers eight months of pay and benefits through September 2025 to federal workers who agreed to resign immediately, though funding is only secured through March 14.
A federal judge in Boston, George O'Toole, ruled on Wednesday that unions lacked legal standing to challenge the program, thereby allowing the administration to proceed with the controversial workforce reduction initiative.
Pro-Trump narrative
The deferred resignation program represents a generous and voluntary option for federal employees to plan their futures while saving taxpayers billions of dollars, offering an effective and fair off-ramp for workers who might otherwise face potential layoffs in upcoming workforce reductions.
Anti-Trump narrative
The program amounts to an unfunded IOU that coerces dedicated public servants into making life-altering decisions without adequate information or guarantees, potentially risking a devastating drain in federal agencies and disruption of vital government services.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the United States before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Weight-loss Drug Shows Promise in Reducing Alcohol Consumption
A study has found that semaglutide, a drug originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes and sold by Novo Nordisk as brands Wegovy and Ozempic, cut alcohol consumption in patients by about 40% and reduced the desire to drink.
Nearly 40% of people in the semaglutide group reported no heavy drinking days in the last month of treatment, compared with 20% in the placebo group, demonstrating significant behavioral changes, according to the study.
The research, conducted by scientists of University of North Carolina School of Medicine, observed 48 people with a drinking problem, and additionally showed that the use of semaglutide reduced participants' rate of cigarette smoking significantly.
Narrative A
The magnitude of semaglutide's effects on alcohol consumption appears stronger than existing medications for alcohol use disorder, even at the lowest clinical doses, suggesting tremendous potential for treating addiction. The drug's ability to reduce both alcohol consumption and cravings could revolutionize treatment options for millions struggling with alcohol dependence. The results demonstrate a clear pathway for new therapeutic approaches.
Narrative B
The study's small sample size, short duration, and limited participant demographics cap the broader applicability of these findings. The research excluded individuals who typically seek treatment for severe alcohol use disorder, and potential side effects still need further investigation. Existing approved medications for alcohol use disorder should remain the primary treatment option until more comprehensive research is completed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 3.6K alcohol-impaired driving fatalities will be reported in the US in 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Economy Grows 0.1% in Q4 2024
UK gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the services sector growing by 0.2%, construction increasing by 0.5%, and production declining by 0.8%. Despite the quarterly growth, GDP per capita saw a 0.1% decrease.
Monthly GDP data in December 2024 showed 0.4% growth, primarily driven by a 0.4% services sector growth, following growth of 0.1% in November and a 0.1% decline in October. Adjusted to inflation, the UK economy grew by 0.9% in 2024, though real GDP per capita declined by 0.1%.
The services sector's December growth was largely supported by professional, scientific, and technical activities – which grew by 1.2% – while administrative and support services increased by 1.1% after two consecutive monthly declines.
Left narrative
The latest ONS statistics show promising signs for the UK economy, with growth surpassing expectations and offering much-needed relief after a challenging year. However, Labour remains committed to further and faster economic growth, improve living standards, and building a stable, investment-friendly environment that benefits all working people across the UK.
Right narrative
While the economy has narrowly avoided recession, current warning signs are impossible to ignore. Much of this meager growth comes from increased government spending, not private sector vitality. Key sectors like manufacturing and retail are shrinking, and GDP per capita is falling. Tax hikes and looming regulatory changes threaten to stifle businesses further, making the outlook for sustained growth bleak. More must be done to prevent a deeper downturn.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK's GDP per capita will be less than half that of the world's leading major economy by Oct. 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Detect Record-Breaking High-Energy Ghost Particle
Scientists have detected an ultra-high-energy neutrino using the KM3NeT detector located 3,450 meters beneath the Mediterranean Sea. With 220 petaelectronvolts (PeV) of energy, it's the most energetic neutrino ever observed — 100 times more powerful than any previously detected neutrino.
The neutrino was detected when it produced a muon particle, triggering signals in more than one-third of the detector's sensors and creating distinctive flashes of blue light that enabled scientists to measure its trajectory and energy levels.
The particle's extraordinary energy level is equivalent to 30K times the capacity of CERN's Large Hadron Collider, and would require an accelerator so large it encircled Earth to achieve similar energy levels.
Narrative A
The early detection of such an energetic neutrino with only 10% of the detector operational suggests these particles might be more common than previously thought, potentially revolutionizing our understanding of the universe's most extreme events and particle acceleration mechanisms.
Narrative B
The lack of similar detections by other neutrino observatories, such as IceCube, raises questions about whether this was an extremely lucky find or if there might be issues with the detection methodology that must be addressed before drawing definitive conclusions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 6.9% chance that most dark matter will turn out to be primordial black holes, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Car Rams into Munich Crowd, Injures 28 in Suspected Attack
A Mini Cooper drove into a crowd of demonstrators near Munich's central train station on Thursday, injuring at least 28 people, including children, in what officials are investigating as a "suspected attack." The driver, a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker, has been arrested.
The incident occurred around 10:30 am local time during a protest organized by the Verdi trade union. Approximately 1K public sector workers had joined the demonstration for better wages and working conditions.
According to reports, police fired shots at the vehicle before detaining the suspect, who was previously known to authorities for drug-related offenses and theft.
Right narrative
This terrible attack highlights an urgent need for stricter immigration controls and faster deportation procedures as the current system is failing to screen and monitor criminal asylum seekers. Germany can't continue experiencing repeated attacks without implementing substantial policy changes to protect its citizens.
Left narrative
The incident shouldn't be used to stigmatize asylum seekers or fuel anti-immigration sentiment. The focus should remain on supporting the victims and allowing proper investigation before drawing conclusions. The suspect's previous offenses were minor, and mental health factors must be considered to understand his motivation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by April 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chinese Foreign Minister Visits UK for First Time in Decade
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi conducted the first UK-China Strategic Dialogue since 2018 in London on Thursday. The meeting was also the first official visit to the UK by the Chinese foreign minister in a decade.
According to Lammy, the two spoke about "a wide range of issues" including the Middle East and Ukraine. Lammy claimed that the two would "work together" as trade partners and permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) while "challeng[ing]" on human rights, Hong Kong, sanctions, and the imprisonment of Jimmy Lai.
The two had met in Beijing in October, while Sir Keir Starmer became the first prime minister to meet Pres. Xi Jinping since Theresa May in 2018 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in November.
Pro-China narrative
Renewing ties with China is essential for economic growth and global relevance. Despite differences, China remains the world’s second-largest economy and offers significant opportunities. As the UK faces post-Brexit challenges and stagnant growth, stronger relations with China could boost key sectors. Pragmatic cooperation would help the UK access China's dynamic markets — fostering mutual benefits while maintaining important dialogue on global issues.
Anti-China narrative
Renewing ties with China risks compromising the UK’s moral standing. While economic interests are important, these should not overshadow Beijing's industrial-scale domestic abuses. China's repression extends beyond its borders, targeting activists even in the UK. By normalizing relations without addressing these violations, the UK may signal tolerance for authoritarianism. Prioritizing trade over human rights could undermine Britain's global leadership on justice and freedom.
Nerd narrative
There is a 19.8% chance that if China invades Taiwan before 2035 the UK will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Senate Confirms RFK Jr. as Health Secretary
The US Senate on Thursday confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services with a mostly party-line vote of 52-48.
Kennedy, a longtime critic of vaccines, secured key Republican votes after making several commitments to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), including promises to maintain existing vaccine programs and submit to regular oversight by the Senate Health Committee.
Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, a polio survivor, was the only Republican to vote against Kennedy's confirmation. In a statement, he cited concerns about Kennedy's stance on vaccines, writing he wouldn't "condone the relitigation of proven cures."
Republican narrative
Kennedy has now been empowered to shake up the US health establishment just as Trump intended. It's time to root out the conflicts of interest within federal agencies and tackle the causes of chronic diseases, which are making Americans sick and costing them untoward millions. America is on the path to becoming healthy again.
Democratic narrative
Kennedy's history of promoting debunked lies about vaccines and other conspiracy theories, in addition to his lack of public health experience, makes him dangerously unqualified to lead HHS. His appointment threatens decades of public health progress and could undermine vital vaccination programs that have saved millions of lives.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the US federal government will pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens, according to the Metaculus prediction community.