Netanyahu Delivers Remarks to the US Congress
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress on Wednesday as part of his visit to the US aimed at reinforcing American support for Israel amid the war in Gaza.
Netanyahu emphasized the Israeli military's resolve to win the conflict, saying the country will continue to wage war until Hamas is destroyed and the hostages returned. He also called on American lawmakers to fast-track military aid to Israel, dismissing accusations of genocide as "outrageous slanders."
Netanyahu repeatedly compared Hamas' Oct. 7 attack that killed 1.2K people in Israel and resulted in more than 200 hostages being taken into Gaza to both the 9/11 attacks and Pearl Harbor, framing the war as a civilizational conflict. Gaza's health ministry has reported that over 39K Palestinians have been killed since the war began.
Establishment-critical narrative
This visit is largely useless and should have been canceled before it began. While this visit was scheduled when the war in Gaza was front page news in the US, recent domestic events like the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden stepping down from his re-election campaign have overshadowed international news as well as this visit. Though the purpose of this visit may have been to bring attention and support to Israel, the opposite likely occurred, with boycotts against his speech happening in Congress, anger from the families of Israeli hostages about Netanyahu's departure from Israel, and large protests taking place in the Capitol and beyond.
Pro-establishment narrative
This congressional address was a strong symbol of American support and longtime alliance with Israel. Netanyahu's invitation is a sign of bipartisan unity amidst political differences, even despite the boycotts that occurred within Congress. Even though some US lawmakers may disagree with the policies of Netanyahu, his speech, and the response by American politicians emphasizes that this partnership is ironclad, and the US and Israel are unified in their goal of bringing home the hostages. This was a bipartisan show of support for the US' crucial ally.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Campaign Challenges Harris' Access to Biden Funds
Lawyers for the Trump campaign filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) Tuesday, claiming that campaign finance laws prohibit Vice Pres. Kamala Harris from taking control of funds raised by Pres. Joe Biden's official "Biden for President" campaign.
Following Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race and his endorsement of Harris for the Democratic nomination, the Biden campaign is looking to transfer $95M of funds to the renamed “Harris for President” campaign.
Trump's attorneys argue that transferring the funds would be the "biggest violation in the history of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971."
Democratic narrative
Republicans are clearly scared to face Harris in November, leading to their desperate attempt to challenge her right to the Biden-Harris campaign funds. From a legal standpoint, Harris is legally entitled to any campaign donation since she is listed on the ticket. Even if that weren’t obvious, there would be no way to block her from accessing the money before the election. The GOP will lose this challenge, and likely the election.
Republican narrative
The unprecedented ousting of Joe Biden has created many legal questions regarding the next Democratic nominee, which is likely to be Kamala Harris. Democrats sneakily tried to slap Harris' name over Biden's to secure $100M in campaign funds, but they are likely committing a campaign finance violation. Democrats subverted Democracy by forcing Biden out, and now they're looking to give his money to Harris.
Nerd narrative
There is a 43% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Uganda Detains Dozens of Anti-Government Protesters
At least 45 people were arrested in Uganda's capital, Kampala, on Tuesday for participating in anti-corruption protests despite an official ban. This is according to Chapter Four Uganda, a human rights group offering legal services to the detainees.
Riot police staffed roadblocks, particularly near the business district, and sealed off the roads leading to parliament. The detainees, including a prominent TV and radio presenter, were taken into custody on charges including being a "common nuisance."
The protests were organized on social media following outrage over persistent allegations of high-level corruption and reportedly took inspiration from last month's rallies in neighboring Kenya, forcing Kenyan Pres. William Ruto to reverse planned tax hikes.
Narrative A
The protests prove that civil society can no longer be dissuaded by violence and threats from exercising its constitutional right to protest. Uganda is one of the world's most corrupt countries, and the brutal reaction to the protests reveals the authoritarian regime's fear of its own people. After Kenya, the wave of popular anger against corruption and misrule is now spilling over to Uganda — an encouraging sign that people are increasingly holding their governments to account.
Narrative B
The right to protest isn't unconditional, and the Ugandan authorities must protect the country's stability when unrest erupts. To plunge the country into chaos and bring themselves to power, sections of the opposition are working with foreigners, as they did four years ago. However, the government will not tolerate the country's progress being disrupted. Uganda is not Kenya, and most Ugandans are not falling for the empty slogans of those behind the copycat protests.
Nerd narrative
There's a 31% chance that Uganda will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nepal: Plane Crash Kills 18, Pilot Lone Survivor
A passenger plane with 19 people onboard crashed Wednesday just after taking off from Kathmandu, Nepal's capital, killing 18 people and injuring the pilot.
A doctor at Kathmandu Medical College Hospital told The Associated Press that the plane's pilot sustained injuries to his eyes, but said his life was not in danger.
The plane, operated by Nepal's Saurya Airlines, had been carrying two crew members and 17 technicians to Pokhara airport for regular maintenance.
Narrative A
Nepal has one of the world's worst records for aviation safety. Not only is this due to poor training and maintenance, but the country is one of the most challenging places to fly, as mountain peaks and rugged geography often surround runways.
Narrative B
The cause of Wednesday's tragic crash hasn't been ascertained yet, and it's unfair to blame all of Nepal's air tragedies solely on its infrastructure. The aviation industry and pilots must cope with extraordinary challenges in this terrain, which must always be kept in mind.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Boeing will release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Video of Police Shooting of Sonya Massey Released
On Monday, the Illinois State Police released bodycam footage of the shooting of Sonya Massey by a Sangamon County Sheriff's Deputy, Sean Grayson. Grayson has been dismissed from the force and charged with three counts of first-degree murder as a result of the shooting.
Massey, a Black woman, had reportedly called the police over a suspected prowler at her home on July 6 in Springfield, Illinois. Grayson then threatened to shoot Massey after she said "I rebuke you in the name of Jesus" after being asked to move a pot of water from the stove.
Per the video, Grayson then shot Massey fatally three times in the dispute over the pot of boiling water, with Massey apologizing before being shot from over the kitchen counter. The officer then discouraged his partner from getting a medical kit before relenting.
Narrative A
In the years after the killing of George Floyd, there's still a dire need for police reform in the United States. Sonya Massey was a woman in distress, and the police utterly failed to protect her. The status quo is leading to senseless deaths, with systemic racism going beyond the officer who pulled the trigger. Radical reform is needed to hold police to account.
Narrative B
The video was shocking, but there must be calm if we want justice to be served through the legal system. Grayson is entitled to his day in court and a chance to defend himself from the allegations, and it would be inappropriate to jump to conclusions. It helps no one to give in to mob mentality and hasty judgments, and the rule of law must be respected.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that a large American city will fully abolish their police department before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Zealand: Inquiry Finds Over 200K Abused in State Care
According to a public inquiry published Wednesday, around 200K children and vulnerable adults suffered some form of abuse while in state and religious care in New Zealand over the last 70 years.
The Royal Commission found that nearly a third of 650K children and vulnerable adults in state, foster, and church care between 1950 and 2019 experienced physical, sexual, verbal, or psychological abuse, while others were exploited or neglected.
In its report, the Commission — which interviewed over 2.3K survivors of abuse — said that sexual abuse was "commonplace," while physical abuse was "prevalent across all settings."
Narrative A
Though the government faces billions of dollars in fresh compensation claims, it recognizes and acknowledges the abuse survivors underwent and is committed to addressing the report's recommendations. While previous governments had resisted holding such an inquiry, the Luxon government will do anything it can to address this decades-long injustice and ensure it isn't repeated.
Narrative B
Luxon's apology isn't enough. The Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, and heads of the Catholic and Anglican churches must also take full responsibility for their failures to safeguard the inmates year after year. It's a national disgrace that state and faith-based institutions abused and tortured hundreds of thousands of people for decades with impunity while New Zealand promoted itself, internationally and domestically, as a safe, fair country.
Japan: Heads of Drug Maker Resign Over Potentially Deadly Diet Pills
The chairman and president of Japanese drug manufacturer Kobayashi Pharmaceutical have stepped down amid an investigation into whether their dietary supplements are linked to hundreds of deaths.
Company Chairman Kazumasa Kobayashi stepped down Tuesday but will stay at the firm as an advisor. His son and president of the company, Akihiro Kobayashi, will also resign but maintain a role to help compensate potential victims.
The cholesterol-lowering diet pills are made from red yeast rice called beni koji, which has been proven to lower cholesterol but is also connected to organ damage. Reports of kidney failure in those who took the supplement emerged at the beginning of the year.
Narrative A
Kobayashi was warned about these side effects two months before recalling its deadly products. While the government's oversight was certainly less than satisfactory, the buck stops with the company distributing millions of these beni koji-filled products to the Japanese people.
Narrative B
Government regulators deserve just as much blame for allowing dangerous products to hit the market. These supplements aren't regulated as medicine, and when customers report adverse effects, there are no required independent third-parties to investigate. Companies motivated by profit shouldn't be in charge of policing their product quality.
Macron Says French Caretaker Govt to Stay on Through Olympics
French Pres. Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday in his first broadcast interview after parliamentary elections held earlier this month that he will not appoint a new prime minister until after the Paris Olympics, whose opening ceremony is scheduled for Friday.
This means that the caretaker government of outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will remain in power at least until Aug. 11, as no party or coalition has a majority at the newly elected National Assembly.
Earlier on Tuesday, the leftist, four-party New Popular Front (NFP) coalition — the largest bloc in the chamber with 193 seats — put forward Lucie Castets as their candidate for prime minister.
Pro-establishment narrative
The leftist bloc may have agreed on Lucie Castets as their candidate for prime minister for now, but it's uncertain how long their coalition will endure as the Socialists and LFI remain at odds. Given that the Socialist Party is likely to soon break away from its radical allies and join a mainstream coalition, Macron is right to wait.
Establishment-critical narrative
Macron is on a dangerous path against both the leftist New Popular Front and the right-wing National Rally in a desperate power grab after his camp suffered a massive defeat in legislative elections. As he does so, he denies democracy and undermines the republic's institutions and the sovereignty of the people.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that French president Emmanuel Macron will call another snap legislative election before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Govt. Report: Undocumented Immigrants Boost Economy
Based on an estimated increase of 1.7M immigrants per year from 2021-2026, a US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report says the country will see an increase of $1.7T in federal revenue from 2024-2034 and a $897B decrease to the federal deficit.
This figure is based on projections that through their participation in the labor market, they will pay $788B in taxes, adding $387B in federal revenue through their general effect on the economy.
Regarding the children of immigrants who are born in America, the report says their access to welfare will increase total federal program expenditures and debt interest by $300B over the 10-year period, resulting in an additional $23B in mandatory spending in 2034.
Democratic narrative
Even conservatives — if they truly believe in free market capitalism — have to acknowledge that immigration is not draining the welfare system but rather helping cut back the debt. When immigrants come to America, whether legally or not, they end up working and paying significant amounts of taxes. Instead of blocking or deporting migrants, the government should encourage more people to participate in the American economy.
Republican narrative
One study on tax revenue doesn't outweigh the myriad of evidence proving that immigrants take jobs from native born Americans. When waves of immigrants come into the country, they move to up-and-coming cities, which means Americans who live there are driven out and those who planned to move there no longer have the chance. America is a nation of people, but those in power have chosen to ignore their wellbeing in pursuit of abstract GDP growth.
Nerd narrative
There is a 22% chance that the US phases out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Harris Holds First Campaign Rally
US Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday — two days after Pres. Joe Biden announced he wouldn't continue to seek re-election — used her first campaign rally to go on the offensive against former Pres. Donald Trump, saying she would put her "record against his any day of the week."
Harris, speaking to a crowd of about 3K people in Wisconsin, also recounted her days as the attorney general of California, prosecuting "perpetrators of all kinds," including "fraudsters," "cheaters," and "predators." She said, "hear me when I say I know Donald Trump's type."
Meanwhile, Trump on Tuesday claimed on social media that the Biden/Harris administration didn't "protect" him prior to the July 13 attempt on his life.
Democratic narrative
Harris is wise to come out of the gates by directing her sharpest attacks at Trump and his "Make America Great Again" agenda. Recent elections showed that when Democrats made the risks of a Trump-led MAGA future the centerpiece of their campaign, they won. Harris should also tout her accomplishments and future plans, but staying on offense against Trump is important.
Republican narrative
Democrats may think they've discovered some sort of secret formula for defeating Trump by anointing Harris as their nominee, but the strategy for easily defeating her won't require much work. Trump will just have to highlight Harris' leftist extremism, in addition to her role in so many of the Biden administration's failed policies. She can attack all she wants, but she won't be able to hide from her disastrous record.
Nerd narrative
There's a 43% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.