UK Special Election: Labour Flips 2 Conservative-Held Seats
Britain's Labour Party flipped two seats held by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party in Thursday's by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood.
Results showed Gen Kitchen won Wellingborough in central England decisively, while Damien Egan took over the House of Commons seat in southwest England's Kingswood.
According to BBC elections analyst John Curtice, the Wellingborough election resulted in the second-largest swing from the Conservatives to the Labour Party in nearly 80 years.
Narrative A
With a national election coming up later this year, Sunak is desperate for a miracle. Sunak, the fifth Conservative leader since 2016, was already trailing 20 points behind Labour in opinion polls over the past couple years. Friday's results solidified how dire the situation is for the Conservatives.
Narrative B
Labour looks on track for a big win in the general election in a few months, but it shouldn't get too far ahead of itself. Israel's war in Gaza has reignited some systemic antisemitism within the party, which is the type of problem that could derail a party's best-laid election plans.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance the UK will have a Labour government before June 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
ICJ: Israel Responds to South Africa's 'Urgent Request' in Genocide Case
Israel on Thursday responded to South Africa's latest application to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which called on the court to take additional measures against Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip.
In a three-page filing with the court, lawyers for Israel reiterated their view that South Africa's application "is wholly unfounded in fact and law, morally repugnant, and represents an abuse both of the Genocide Convention and of the Court itself."
The ICJ last month found that Israel's actions in Gaza could amount to genocide, and subsequently ordered Israel to use all its power to prevent genocidal acts, including preventing and punishing incitement to genocide, and ensuring aid reaches the people of Gaza.
Pro-Palestine narrative
After the ICJ ordered Israel to take steps to further prevent what could be constituted as genocide, there is little evidence to suggest the country has changed course. In fact, since the ruling, Israel has intensified its bombing and looks poised to attack Rafah, the last safe place in Gaza for civilians. South Africa is right to call on the court to take urgent action.
Pro-Israel narrative
The South African argument being presented at the ICJ is not only factually inaccurate, but legally void. This whole request makes a mockery of the international court and the Genocide Convention. It is Hamas that continues to flagrantly disregard international law by failing to return the Israeli hostages.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hunter Biden: Whistleblower Charged With Lying to FBI
The Justice Department (DOJ) on Thursday arrested Alexander Smirnov, who as an FBI informant claimed Pres. Joe Biden and his son Hunter were involved in corrupt deals with Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, for lying to the bureau.
Smirnov was charged with two counts of allegedly lying to the FBI. The DOJ claims Smirnov falsely said Burisma said it hired Hunter to "protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems" and he also lied when he said Burisma paid the Bidens $5M.
The DOJ believes Smirnov's claim that Burisma paid off the Bidens while the elder Biden was US vice president, so that it could stop a 2016 criminal investigation into the company, was false because he didn't develop contact with Burisma until after Biden left office.
Democratic narrative
Unsurprisingly, House Republicans' star witness is a fraud. The FBI kept Smirnov's testimony under wraps because it knew it contained biased and unsubstantiated claims the GOP would've celebrated as true. Even Republicans knew Smirnov was shady, but they were willing to look the other way in order to advance their fraudulent impeachment inquiry.
Republican narrative
If Weiss really didn't investigate Smirnov's claims until recently, this is an impeachable dereliction of duty. Smirnov's claims were serious, and now it seems almost too convenient that his indictment might overshadow legitimate evidence against the Bidens. In addition, if the DOJ is in the mood for indicting informants it should go after those who fabricated evidence in the Trump-Russia collusion hoax.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that Pres. Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Greece Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage
Greece on Thursday became the first Orthodox Christian country to legalize same-sex marriage after its parliament voted 176-76 to approve a bill Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis argued would "boldly abolish a serious inequality."
While the legislation gives same-sex couples equal parental rights — previously only the biological parents were recognized as a child's legal guardian — and right to legally adopt children, it bans them from becoming parents through surrogacy or assisted reproduction.
Mitsotakis said that Athens was "proud" to legislate marriage equality, which he deemed "a milestone for human rights, reflecting today's Greece — a progressive, and democratic country, passionately committed to European values." The move was opposed by the Greek Orthodox church.
Narrative A
Thursday's vote was long overdue. It's a significant step for human rights, equality, and Greek society. By legally safeguarding an invisible, marginalized community's rights, the legislation provides same-sex couples peace of mind on fundamental issues and protects children living in a state of precariousness.
Narrative B
Greece is a country of traditional family values and structures. Giving same-sex couples the right to wed and adopt children puts the rights of homosexual couples above the interests of children, and will corrupt the country's social cohesion. The legislation is anti-Christian, and, as it hurts national interests, it must be rolled back immediately.
Narrative C
The legislation could be a welcome solution to a same-sex family's problems, but it doesn't overturn crucial obstacles for homosexual couples who remain second-class citizens in their own country. While same-sex couples can now wed and adopt in Greece, they're denied the right to have a child through a surrogate. Moreover, the long and expensive adoption process makes it out of reach for many.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Greece will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russian Opposition Leader Navalny Dies in Prison
Prominent Kremlin critic and opposition leader Alexei Navalny died Friday at age 47 in a high-security prison above the Arctic Circle, where he was serving a 19-year sentence on charges of fraud and extremism. The Yamalo-Nenets branch of the Federal Penitentiary Service confirmed the death.
Navalny allegedly felt unwell after a walk in penal colony No. 3 in the Yamalo-Nenets region, losing consciousness almost immediately. According to penitentiary authorities, medics promptly arrived to revive him but failed.
The cause of death has yet to be established, but a source on Russia's state-backed RT news outlet claimed Navalny had a blood clot. However, his lawyer insisted "everything was normal" Wednesday when they last met.
Anti-Russia narrative
Even if it's true that Navalny died from natural causes, Putin and the Kremlin are responsible for his death because Navalny was isolated in the Arctic Circle despite being in ill health for months. After giving his life to prove that civic courage is an ideal worth pursuing, Navalny is a hero and a symbol for his countrymen in their battle against Putin's dictatorship.
Pro-Russia narrative
Navalny's sudden death has come as a shock to everyone, and it seems that unfounded Western allegations against the Kremlin for this incident were prepared long ago. Given their uninspired reaction to the torture and death of US citizen and journalist Gonzalo Lira in a Ukrainian prison, the media should show more restraint and wait for the official results of medical examinations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by Jan. 3, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
OpenAI Launches Text-to-Video Tool
OpenAI, the company behind the artificial intelligence (AI) model ChatGPT, Thursday unveiled Sora, which — named after the Japanese work for "Sky" — can generate videos up to one-minute-long from text prompts.
During a demonstration, OpenAI released minute-long Hollywood-quality videos, including one showing a wooly mammoth running through the snow and one with a scene from the streets of Tokyo.
The Tokyo video was generated from a simple text prompt requesting a "bustling city street," "people enjoying the beautiful snowy weather," and "gorgeous sakura petals … flying through the wind along with snowflakes."
Narrative A
OpenAI is again ahead of the curve. The quality of these videos is astounding, especially since the same footage would've taken hours for a human film crew or animator to produce. OpenAI is also being careful because of the political issues these videos could cause. That's why it won't be released to the public until anti-deception tools have been finalized.
Narrative B
OpenAI says it's developing anti-deepfake safeguards, but how much can the company be trusted considering the deepfakes that have been created using other technology? Social media companies keep saying they'll create safeguards, but so far nothing has come of those promises.
Cynical narrative
OpenAI claims it wants to make the world better, but if it did it wouldn't be stealing human-made art to train its product, or outsourcing work to underpaid laborers overseas. OpenAI might be creating cool technology, but its real goal seems to be to become just another lucratively compensated Silicon Valley tech company.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that an original, wholly AI-generated feature film will rank No. 1 on popular streaming services by Aug. 14, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Israeli Intelligence Warns Hamas Will Survive Gaza War
Israeli media reported on Thursday that Israel's military intelligence warned the country's leaders that even if the military successfully dismantles Hamas in Gaza, it will survive as "a guerrilla group.” The intelligence report also claimed that Palestinians in Gaza still have “authentic support” for Hamas.
The document was first discussed by figures within Israel's security apparatus last week before being reportedly shown to the country's political establishment on Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel can defeat Hamas militarily.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Friday that, according to four sources and satellite imagery, Egypt is building a buffer zone on the Gaza border seemingly as a contingency plan to accommodate Palestinians in case an Israeli offensive into Rafah prompts a mass exodus from Gaza.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and almost 30K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to kill Hamas' top leaders or to create conditions advantageous to returning the hostages and ending this long-drawn-out conflict. Even if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive cease-fire.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza. As Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power is not even up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals. Israel can continue this war for as long as needed, and Hamas must soften its demands and release the hostages if it wants to prevent a Rafah offensive.
Tech Companies Pledge to Fight AI Election Interference
Twenty tech companies, including OpenAI, Microsoft, Adobe, Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok, have pledged to prevent artificial intelligence (AI) from interfering in elections across the world this year.
The pledge, which is voluntary, includes a promise to create tools to help discern AI-generated images from real ones and be transparent with the public when any notable developments occur.
The signatories of the pledge, which also include Google, Amazon, and IBM, said they would target technology that can create "deceptively fake or alter the appearance, voice, or actions of political candidates, election officials, and other key stakeholders."
Left narrative
While Big Tech may have begun to fortify their technology against election meddling, the risks of hateful and violent content, alongside deepfakes, are greater than ever before. This is partly because as these companies pledge to reign in existing technology, they continue to release new products that need even more complex safeguards. Misinformation must be stopped before it impacts voters, and this is only a small first step.
Right narrative
Most Americans probably want to feel safe from the risks of AI, but giving Big Tech, and thus their friends in the Democratic party, the power to oversee election-related information will not ensure freedom or fairness. The companies pledging to safeguard democracy are the same ones that suppressed the Hunter Biden laptop story and kicked Conservatives off social media for their political views. They should not be given any further power.
Trump Hush Money Trial Set For Mar. 25
On Thursday, Judge Juan Merchan rejected former US Pres. Donald Trump's request to dismiss the case related to his alleged hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and confirmed jury selection will begin as scheduled March 25.
Trump was present in the courtroom, where he reiterated claims that the charges are political attacks by Democrats. The former president and GOP frontrunner faces a 34-count indictment for allegedly falsifying business records to cover up a $130K payment to Daniels before the 2016 election.
Trump's attorney, Todd Blanche, argued that the imminent trial date violates the Constitution and hampers his legal team from preparing for three other criminal trials. He also claimed the trial would interfere in the election since it limits Trump’s ability to campaign during the presidential primary season.
Republican narrative
This sham case shouldn't be allowed to proceed. Even some liberals acknowledge that Bragg’s half-baked assertions that Trump violated campaign finance laws by making hush money payments are ridiculous, yet partisan judges will do anything to force Trump to be in the courtroom instead of campaigning.
Democratic narrative
Trump's claim that a presidential candidate is shielded from criminal prosecution was weak at best, and it's shameful that any lawyer would've offered it. Thankfully, Merchan rejected this preposterous notion and now Trump will be treated like any other defendant.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Border Patrol Deputy Chief Suspended for Alleged Misconduct
US Customs Border Protection (CBP) suspended acting Border Patrol deputy chief Joel Martinez on Thursday for alleged misconduct, CBP spokesperson Erin Waters confirmed. CBP did not further elaborate on the case, citing privacy laws.
Martinez was not arrested, but Waters said the agency does “not tolerate misconduct within our ranks.” Waters added that CBP immediately refers any potential misconduct for investigation as soon as it's discovered.
Martinez was named second in command of Border Patrol in January after previously serving as the chief of the Laredo, Tex. sector. He also held leadership positions in CBP’s Rio Grande Valley and Big Bend sectors.
Left narrative
Considering the stories of misconduct that are constantly emerging from Border Patrol, it's no surprise that someone of authority is facing allegations of misconduct. The number of investigations CBP has conducted shows there are systemic issues that must be addressed with Border Patrol.
Right narrative
No one knows what Martinez did, but it's more likely he was doing his best to protect the US from the invasion at the southern border that the Biden administration refuses to stop. While millions of illegal migrants are flooding the US, it seems the government only wants to punish those tasked with enforcing immigration law.