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Report: OpenAI Considering Selling Shares at $86B Valuation
Artificial intelligence (AI) startup OpenAI is reportedly discussing selling existing employees' shares at a valuation of $86B in a transaction known as a tender offer.
The firm is reportedly negotiating with potential investors, which means it hasn't finalized allocations and the parameters of the deal could still evolve.
Last month, the ChatGPT creator, which is backed by Microsoft, was reportedly seeking a valuation of as much as $90B.
Narrative A
Employees at OpenAI have done a great job getting ahead of the AI industry curve and creating a chatbot with hundreds of thousands of users. They deserve to cash in on the company’s success. This offering will also allow OpenAI to attract more talent and compete with bigger tech firms and it's a win-win.
Narrative B
Employees at OpenAI shouldn't start spending their windfall just yet. This valuation possibly relies on funding from Middle East-based investors who may not be in a position to contribute in light of the conflict in the region. There are major question marks and OpenAI is still a ways away from its big payday.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that around 12.98 million customers will make up the most significant paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iraq: Rockets, Drones Target Bases Housing US Forces
Two military bases hosting US troops in western Iraq were reportedly attacked with drones and missiles Thursday, days after Iraqi militias allegedly warned Washington against intervening in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Several blasts were allegedly heard at Ain Al-Asad air base, though it's unclear whether the attack caused casualties or damage. The Iraqi military said it had blocked off the area around the base and launched an investigation.
Meanwhile, rockets reportedly struck a military base near Baghdad's international airport. The same day, the US Navy said it had intercepted three cruise missiles and several drones fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen "potentially" targeting Israel.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite the tragic casualties on both sides of the conflict, the US — looking to shore up its political standing with Tel Aviv — has unequivocally supported Israel while largely ignoring the horrors experienced by the Palestinians. This is a dangerous maneuver that has abandoned Washington's national interests in the rest of the region, leaving room for other actors to intervene.
Pro-establishment narrative
While there's no clear evidence that Tehran was involved in Hamas' savage assault on Israel, recent attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US bases show that the Iranian regime is playing with fire. Meanwhile, other Iranian proxies like Hezbollah threaten to open a second front against Israel. Israel has no choice but to defend itself, and Washington is right to have its back.
Nerd narrative
There's a 35% chance that before 2024, the US government will state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Says China Has Significantly Expanded Its Nuclear Arsenal
A new report from the Pentagon has claimed that, as of May this year, China holds over 500 operational nuclear warheads — an increase from an estimated 400 in 2021.
The US Dept. of Defense's annual China Military Power Report claimed the figures to be in line with previous assessments, while also stating its concern over what it described as the quickening development of China's nuclear arsenal. A senior US defense official said Beijing is "expanding and investing in their land-, sea- and air-based nuclear delivery platforms."
The report also claims that Beijing desires to double its stock of nuclear warheads to over 1K by 2030. Chinese President Xi Jinping has previously stated that the country will hold a "world-class military" by 2049.
Anti-China narrative
As America's fastest-growing nuclear rival, China is hypocritically calling for the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons while rapidly expanding its own arsenal. To neutralize this danger, Washington must call China's bluff and freeze nuclear redeployment into Asia in return for Beijing's pausing of its own nuclear projects. If this doesn't occur, China's nuclear military strength will only continue to strengthen in the years and decades to come — a reality that must be avoided.
Pro-China narrative
While China continues to be hyped within Western media as a nuclear threat, recent reports show that the modernization and growth of nuclear arsenals are expanding globally. The PRC, like any other country, requires sophisticated weaponry to ensure national security, and the legitimate growth of nuclear capabilities is necessary. While the West will continue to demonize China, Beijing will continue to act only to ensure the safety of its national sovereignty.
Nerd narrative
There is a 17% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Judge Fines, Threatens to Jail Trump for Violating Gag Order
The judge overseeing Donald Trump's New York civil fraud trial fined the former president $5K and threatened "serious sanctions" — including jail time — on Friday after Trump allegedly violated the gag order barring him from speaking about the court’s staff.
The apparent violation consisted of Trump failing to remove a social media post about Judge Arthur Engoron's clerk.
Engoron issued the gag order on Oct. 3 after Trump first posted the social media post, which referred to the clerk as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's "girlfriend."
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump shouldn't be punished or imprisoned for violating this ridiculous gag order. The post in question was removed from Truth Social soon after the judge ordered it to be, and it was an unintentional mistake that it was left up on his campaign website. His campaign is a complex machine with many moving parts, and this just fell through the cracks. Even just the consideration of jail time is absurd.
Anti-Trump narrative
The gag order was put in place because Trump was making incendiary and untrue statements about the court staff in this case, which could have led to dangerous physical harm. Even if leaving the post up was accidental, Trump is still ultimately responsible for what appears on his website. Trump is not above the law, and this serious violation of a gag order deserves sanctions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Amazon Tests Humanoid Robots in Warehouses
On Wednesday, Amazon announced it had begun testing a bipedal robot — named Digit — to perform highly repetitive tasks, such as consolidating tones, in its warehouses.
Though it's in the early stages of development, the company says Digit can move, squat, bend, and grasp items using its arms and legs.
Developed in partnership with Oregon-based startup Agility Robotics, Amazon claims Digit can work in tandem with its staff "in spaces and corners of warehouses in novel ways."
Narrative A
This is a threat to Amazon's human workforce. These robots might not be immediately replacing people, but as the technology gets better we know the company isn't going to pass on something that can save it money and cut out the problems that can occur with human error.
Narrative B
Amazon is simply attempting to change how it moves items through its warehouses so its staff can be free of all the menial tasks and better deliver for its customers. It's also possible that there will be health and safety benefits for human workers. Fears of Amazon using robots to replace people are overblown.
Nerd narrative
There's a 34% chance that AI will be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France: 18 Arrested After Bomb Threats at Airports, Palace at Versailles
On Thursday, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin announced that at least 18 people in France, mostly youths, had been arrested in the span of 48 hours following fake bomb threats at the Palace of Versailles, the Louvre, schools, hospitals, and 15 airports — which prompted the cancellation of at least 130 flights this week.
Among those arrested was a 16-year-old boy in Saint-Ouen-l’Aumône, a town northwest of Paris, after an emailed bomb threat was sent to his school. Roughly 1.2K people were subsequently evacuated from Jean Perrin High School, including about 1K students.
Justice Minister Éric Dupond-Moretti said Friday that 22 investigations were underway, adding that he would crack down on "little jokers" — who could face two years in prison or a €30K ($31.7k) fine.
Right narrative
Europeans wouldn't be in a constant state of fear if they had taken warnings about immigration seriously. While migrants shouldn't all be cast as criminals, there is a correlation between terrorism and illegal migration that can't be ignored. This game of psychological warfare began long ago, and the ones to blame are sitting in the halls of European governments.
Left narrative
There's a misconception about the correlation between crime and immigrants that's fueling hostility toward asylum seekers. While there are undoubtedly migrants who commit crimes — just as there are non-migrants who commit crimes — this shouldn't be used as an excuse to turn our back on those genuinely seeking asylum or associate them with terrorists.
Narrative C
At a time when the world is already on edge due to real threats of violence, the people of France shouldn't have to face any more psychological terror. While these culprits may think it's a harmless prank, the forced evacuation of public spaces only intensifies an already heated moment in history. Furthermore, these jokes will come with consequences not if, but when, the perpetrators are found and arrested.
Reports: Army Private Who Fled to NKorea Faces Charges
Army Pvt. Travis King, who fled to North Korea before being returned to the US last month, is reportedly being charged with desertion and possession of sexual images of a child.
In all, King is facing eight distinct charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
King fled from South Korea to North Korea on July 18 and was expelled by Pyongyang in September.
Narrative A
King should be prosecuted as much as the evidence against him will allow. Deserting the Army was a bad enough violation, but clearly, his actions before he left were leading to discipline that he was trying to avoid. Even worse, he allowed North Korea — one of the most egregious violators of human rights in the world — to use him as a propaganda tool against the US. He must be punished with due process.
Narrative B
Concerns about the mental health of military personnel have to be taken more seriously. It appears something about being in the Army changed King psychologically. If he expressed dissatisfaction with inequities in the military as he had claimed, he must be taken more seriously as well. King might need help from a mental professional more than he needs punishment.
Pentagon: 274 Reports of UAPs Over Last 8 Months
According to a new US Dept. of Defense (DoD) report, in the last eight months, there have been 274 reports of unidentified anomalous phenomena, known as UAPs or UFOs, made to the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, which leads the government's efforts documenting and analyzing such reports.
The report, which says there have been 291 reports since 2019, brings the total number of reports under review to 800 over the period. While most reports have come from military personnel in restricted airspace, recent reports from commercial pilots have also been documented.
It also noted that none of the reports were "associated with any adverse health effects," but that "many reports from military witnesses do present potential safety of flight concerns." It said there were also some that "exhibited one or more concerning performance characteristics such as high-speed travel" in addition to unusual maneuverability.
Pro-establishment narrative
As has been testified by officials before Congress, UAPs are absolutely real—whether they belong to foreign governments or are non-human, they're still a concern that needs to be addressed by Washington. The public, not just military personnel, deserves to know if their airspace is safe to fly in. The scientific community must investigate and the military must take steps to combat potential enemy assets.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite common beliefs to the contrary, the US government has a history of promoting UFO conspiracies, not downplaying them. The main witness from the last few months' media blitz was a retired Air Force officer who provided questionable testimony. Overall, the Pentagon—for various purposes—has an interest in kindling UFO mythology, perhaps as consistent cover for its own covert operations and next-generation product development.
Nerd narrative
There's an 18% chance that conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, will be discovered in the solar system by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada Withdraws 41 Diplomats from India as Tensions Grow
Canada has withdrawn 41 of its diplomats and their families from India after New Delhi threatened to revoke their diplomatic immunity. The move signifies an escalation of the dispute over a Sikh separatist who was killed in Vancouver on June 18.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie confirmed Thursday that the diplomats and their dependents had left India, cutting Canada’s diplomatic presence in India by two-thirds. India had demanded “parity” in the number of diplomats between the two countries since India only had 21 accredited diplomats in Canada compared to the 62 Canada had in India.
Ties between the two countries have deteriorated dramatically since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian intelligence services of involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Sikh separatist who later became a Canadian citizen. Despite labeling Nijjar as a terrorist, India has resoundingly rejected Trudeau’s claims.
Narrative A
India’s actions over the last month have put a strain on its relationship with Canada, and in turn, harmed millions of people in both nations. New Delhi has violated international law with its threats to strip immunity from Canadian diplomats, and Ottawa had no choice but to remove the majority of its delegates in India. Unfortunately, millions of Canadians of Indian descent will be the victims of India's actions.
Narrative B
Canada is trying to frame India as the antagonist in the dispute over diplomatic relations—claiming New Delhi has violated international law—but this could not be further from the truth. India has every right to seek parity in diplomatic presence, and there was no reason for Ottawa to have nearly three times as many diplomats in India as India had in Canada. Canada doesn't need to have an unnecessarily bloated diplomatic corps in Canada, and India hasn't violated any norms or laws.
New Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden Among Voters Under 30
Former US Pres. Donald Trump is increasing his support among young voters, according to a poll released by Emerson College on Friday, which shows voters under 30 narrowly supporting Trump over Pres. Joe Biden by a margin of 45% to 43%.
Trump’s support among younger demographics marks a dramatic shift from just three years ago, when Biden won roughly 60% of voters under 30 compared to Trump’s 36%. Millennials and Gen Z have overwhelmingly supported Democrats in past elections, but according to an NBC News poll from June, only 9% of voters under 35 “strongly approve” of Biden.
The poll also shows Trump’s nationwide support increasing two percentage points to 47% since last month, while Biden held steady at 45%. The economy remains the most important issue for a plurality of voters (35%), while immigration has increased in importance, especially among people in the Northeast.
Republican narrative
Young Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the Democratic party has failed them, and they are flocking to Trump in shocking numbers. Biden clearly lacks the cognitive ability to serve as president, and his policies are making Americans poorer and less safe. Young people, like most other Americans, recognize that the country was doing better under Trump, and the numbers reflect that reality.
Democratic narrative
Despite differing reports from a rogue poll or two, the truth is that Trump and his “MAGA movement” remain extremely unpopular with young people, and he will have a hard time winning them over in the 2024 election. Trump was beaten by wide margins among voters under 30 in previous elections, and that is unlikely to change, as young voters are historically more progressive and diverse than their older counterparts.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election if he faces Joe Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.