Taliban: Afghanistan Earthquake Kills At Least 2K
At least 2K people were killed after a magnitude-6.3 earthquake hit Afghanistan's western Herat province on Saturday, the Taliban administration said Sunday. As of Saturday, the UN's initial death toll stood at 320, though the figure hadn't been verified.
The powerful earthquake was followed by three strong aftershocks, which reportedly destroyed buildings and buried hundreds of civilians under the debris.
The Ministry of Disasters originally reported that over 9K had been injured before correcting the estimate to over 2K — though these figures and the death toll are expected to rise as the search for the missing continues.
Narrative A
Afghanistan is prone to earthquakes, particularly in the Hindu Kush Mountain range, near the convergence of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. Not much can be done to protect the country and its neighbors from this unfortunate geographical feature, which puts the lives of those living in the area at risk.
Narrative B
People don't usually associate earthquakes with climate change, but they are intimately connected as more extreme weather can stress fault lines and make earthquakes more damaging and deadly. By doing more about climate change, this aggravating factor of the severity of quakes could be tempered in the future.
Narrative C
Though Afghanistan has a long history of earthquakes, the destruction creates urgency in designing and implementing strategies to reduce the death toll. However, the decades-long conflict, ongoing dire economic and hunger crises, and stalled international aid have restricted the country's ability to respond to natural disasters.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 79.1K people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake between 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
With 'Total Blockade' of Gaza in Progress, Hamas Official Reportedly Open to Truce
Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera in a phone interview on Monday that the Islamist group is open to discussions over a potential ceasefire with Israel, stating that its targets have been achieved.
Earlier, the spokesman for Hamas' al-Qassam Brigades threatened to kill an Israeli civilian hostage every time Israel hits civilian homes in Gaza without advanced warning, vowing to broadcast the executions.
This comes as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a "total" blockade of Hamas-run Gaza — including supply of food, water, and fuel — after the group conducted the largest attack on Israel in decades.
Pro-Israel narrative
The Israeli Defense Forces had no option but to repel a violent attack against sovereign Israeli territory. Hamas must face the consequences for its vicious and terrorizing actions — this includes massive offensive military operations in Gaza to respond to historic attacks on Israeli soil.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Extraordinary violence has been committed on both sides, and Tel Aviv bears a great deal of responsibility for creating oppressive conditions within Gaza as well as its recent attempts to divide the Al-Aqsa Mosque between Muslims and Jews. It's vital that Israel avoids creating a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza with its military actions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 66% chance that Hamas will lose control of Gaza before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Top Court Hears Govt's Appeal on Rwanda Migrant Plan
On Monday, a five-judge bench at the UK's Supreme Court began a three-day hearing to determine whether there is a "real risk" to sending asylum seekers back to Rwanda.
Lawyers for the home secretary told the top court that the Court of Appeal had unjustly blocked the UK government's plan — stopped 16 months ago — to proceed.
Terming it as "serious and pressing" to tackle "life-threatening" crossings by channel migrants, the government's legal team argued there was a "strong public interest" for the Rwanda policy.
Left narrative
The UK must act as a humanitarian-spirited country to those whose lives have been unfairly destroyed abroad rather than give in to the xenophobic rhetoric that the Conservative party continues to churn out. Corrosive language and behavior to those genuinely seeking asylum will not solve the many problems that the Tories have failed to grapple with during their time in government.
Right narrative
While relevant legislation points towards a strong legal basis for the Home Secretary holding the right to describe what is indeed a "safe" country, there must be an acceptance by the UK's legal system that democratically-elected politicians should have the final say on such nuanced matters. Despite all the noise the left continues to make, there is genuinely popular support for the government's attempts at border control, which must be respected.
US Senators Meet With China's Leader Xi Jinping
A US Senate bipartisan delegation led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) met on Monday with the Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the state-run broadcaster CCTV reported, in a meeting that lasted about 80 minutes.
Schumer expressed his disappointment that the PRC had shown "no sympathy" for Israel following attacks by Hamas that killed hundreds of Israelis over the weekend, as Beijing only called for a two-state solution to end the violence. Chinese state media, however, avoided the topic.
For his part, Xi focused on the China-US bilateral relationship, arguing that the way that they get along will impact the future of humanity. He urged both sides to cooperate and peacefully coexist to address global challenges, including climate change as well as international and regional hotspots.
Pro-establishment narrative
With the China trip by US lawmakers led by Senate Majority Leader Schumer, Washington is again showing its commitment to restoring US-China ties. Now, it's up to China to build on that momentum and rethink its unfair treatment of US companies. Moreover, the PRC's devastating fentanyl exports would be a unique opportunity for Beijing to likewise show its willingness to improve relations at a little political or economic cost.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Schumer criticizes China's alleged unfair economic practices, he fails to mention that the US has added 42 Chinese companies to its export control list. On fentanyl, Beijing has already taken several measures, and by smearing China, Washington is evading its own responsibility for the drug epidemic at home. The PRC welcomes any improvement in bilateral relations, but any overtures from the US must be based on sincerity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Iran Helped Hamas Plan Attack on Israel
The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that militant group Hamas' Saturday attacks were planned with the help of Iranian officials, while the final go-ahead was given in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Oct. 2.
The report — citing sources from Gaza Strip-based Hamas and Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah — alleged that members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been planning the assault since August.
However, while Iran has long been known to be one of Hamas' principal financial backers, a US official quoted by the Wall Street Journal said: "We don't have any information at this time to corroborate th[e] account" that the attacks were backed by Tehran.
Anti-Iran narrative
It's a no-brainer that Iran helped Hamas carry out the brutal attacks against Israel. The group is financially dependent on Iran and doesn't make critical decisions without the country's explicit backing.
Pro-Iran narrative
While Iran unequivocally supports Palestine's legitimate efforts to bring seven decades of oppressive and illegal occupation of its territory by Israel to an end, Saturday's attacks — which reveal the failure of Israel's security organizations — were nothing to do with Tehran.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
German Voters Deal a Blow to Scholz's Coalition in Bavaria and Hesse Elections
Voters delivered a blow to Germany's federal coalition government of the Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday, punishing the three ruling parties and turning to the right in state elections in Bavaria and Hesse.
Provisional results show that Bavaria State Premier Markus Söder's center-right, conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) — which runs for elections solely in the southern state — placed first, receiving 37% of the votes. Right-leaning Free Voters and the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second and third, respectively, combined winning about 30% of the state vote.
Meanwhile, Hesse Prime Minister Boris Rhein's Christian Democratic Union — the CSU's sister party that has governed the state since 1999 — won 34.6% of the votes, gaining more than seven points compared to the 2018 elections, and the AfD achieved its best-ever result in any western state, with 18.4%.
Left narrative
Despite radical positions usually tending to repel voters, Germany has seen the dangerous rise of the right-wing illiberal AfD at a faster pace than most countries in Europe. Results from Sunday's state elections in Bavaria and Hesse show that ignoring the dangerous far-right party is a failed strategy. Unless German politicians succeed in finding the right message to neutralize AfD, Europe's stability may be endangered.
Right narrative
The claim that the AfD was merely an East Germany phenomenon is dead for good, as it has drained voters from all parties in Bavaria and Hesse. Given the unbalanced political offering in Germany since the conservative CDU/CSU shifted toward the center, it's easy to understand why anti-establishment right-wing parties are gaining ground amid a crisis of trust in established parties.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by February 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Sen. Tuberville Continues Military Nominations Blockade
US Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) is continuing his months-long blockade of military nominations in protest of the Biden administration's abortion policy. In response to Democrats' call to end the blockade due to Hamas' attack on Israel, a Tuberville spokesperson said they must move top nominees individually until the Pentagon revokes its policy of covering travel costs for troops seeking an abortion that crosses state lines.
Military promotions are usually processed en masse, but senators have the power to require individual roll-call votes for each one, which has led to over 300 nominees awaiting confirmation. Among them are Pres. Biden's nominee to be the Navy’s top officer, Admiral Lisa Franchetti, and Gen. David Allvin, nominated to lead the Air Force, with both currently serving the job on an acting basis.
The Senate last month was able to conduct votes for Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — coming four months after he was nominated — as well as Gen. Randy George as Army chief of staff and Gen. Eric Smith as commandant of the Marine Corps. The Senate could vote to change the rules, but that would require a two-thirds vote.
Democratic narrative
First and foremost, Tuberville's blockade is in protest of a healthcare policy that is widely supported within the military. To risk the combat readiness of the US military when one of its closest allies is under attack is both hyper-political and dangerous. There's no time to waste, but Senator Tuberville would rather focus on his culture war issue of abortion than fill the most important armed forces positions in the country.
Republican narrative
If the Democrats truly cared about the Pentagon filling its positions, they wouldn't be focused on hyper-permissive abortion policies. Sadly, the Biden White House is so obsessed with the issue that it's willing to sacrifice the nation's combat readiness over something that has nothing to do with national defense. Tuberville's approach is about decoupling national security from woke politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Walgreens Pharmacy Employees Walkout Planned for This Week
This week, pharmacy employees — including pharmacists, technicians, and other staff — at US Walgreens stores are expected to walk off the job.
Some employees will stay away from work for three days, while some are expected to remain out just one day. The labor stoppage is expected to be over on Wednesday.
The employees are trying to draw attention to what they deem as challenging working conditions — including a workload that makes it difficult to correctly fill prescriptions, which they claim, in turn, makes patients less safe.
Narrative A
Whether it’s Walgreens, CVS, or Kaiser Permanente, workers in the healthcare field have been exploited for too long, and work stoppages might be the only way to get the attention of management. If these companies are serious about safely serving their patients, they’ll take the necessary steps to bolster their staffing and make sure working conditions improve. The Walgreens work stoppage is another example of America's simmering recent labor movements.
Narrative B
Of course, management appreciates the unprecedented effort of its employees, especially as things have gotten more difficult because of the COVID pandemic. In order to satisfy worker requests, there should be an ongoing conversation between employees and those in these companies’ boardrooms instead of walkouts that will create long lines and put patients in danger. A labor stoppage is not the answer.
RFK Jr. Announces Independent Run for US President
On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who is the nephew of former Pres. John F. Kennedy and son of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy — announced he is dropping his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in order to run as an independent in the 2024 election.
Kennedy, a longtime environmental lawyer, announced his intentions during a speech in Philadelphia, where he said he was declaring independence from not only the Democratic party but all political parties.
Kennedy is backed by American Values 2024, a super PAC (political action committee) that has raised $17M, including $7M since July.
Republican narrative
Democrats did everything they could to shun Kennedy, including refusing to hold debates between him and Biden and failing to provide Secret Service protection, even after Kennedy faced a serious threat of violence. If his independent campaign winds up taking support away from Biden, it will serve Democrats right for their poor treatment of him.
Democratic narrative
RFK Jr. should have expected that his public criticism of the Democratic National Committee would earn him little help in mounting an unprecedented challenge to an incumbent president. His dangerous conspiracy theories and his embrace of some far-right political figures probably make him a better fit for the Republican Party, or as someone who will actually take support from Trump and the GOP.
Narrative C
RFK Jr.'s entrance as an independent candidate will no doubt hold an anti-establishment appeal, but the question is what the impact will be. He may very well take votes away from Biden, yet Trump is also preparing to mount an offense in case the reverse is true. Likewise, Kennedy's run may fizzle after the novelty wears off. Or this may grow into something major that no one — not even Trump, Biden, or Kennedy himself can wrap their head around right now.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Calf. Gov. Newsom Vetoes Law Banning Caste Discrimination
California Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill Saturday that would have explicitly banned caste discrimination in the state, calling the bill "unnecessary" while citing various California laws that prohibit discrimination based on ancestry.
The bill, Senate Bill 403, was introduced by Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab and passed California’s Assembly by a 55-3 vote and in the Senate by 31-5. The bill was amended several times to gain support in the chambers.
In order to differentiate her bill from California’s numerous civil rights laws prohibiting discrimination based on medical conditions, genetic information, sexual orientation, immigration status, and ancestry, Wahab’s bill expanded "ancestry" to include "lineal descent, heritage, parentage, caste, or any inherited social status."
Narrative A
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to veto the bill that would prohibit caste-based discrimination is a major setback in the fight for civil rights and equality. While Newsome and other opponents of the bill claim that existing laws include caste discrimination, the fact is that marginalized people still experience harassment and exclusion based on their inherited social position. There is no reason to not fortify and broaden anti-discrimination policies, but civil rights advocates will continue to fight for the oppressed.
Narrative B
Gov. Newsom made the correct decision to veto a bill that would have stigmatized Indian Americans and misrepresented Hindu beliefs. While some claim SB403 would decrease discrimination against Indians and other South Asians, the fact is that it would have increased the level of discrimination in California. South Asia is an incredibly diverse region, and a blanket caste law would misrepresent many people. Discrimination is already prohibited, and there was no reason to create confusing categories in this new bill.