Narrative A

The Iraqi government is responsible for the high death toll of this tragic fire. It knew about the lack of safe infrastructure and adequate rescue equipment but did nothing to fix the situation. Corruption and mismanagement are rife in the area, and several similar high-casualty incidents have happened in recent years.

Narrative B

The owners of the wedding venue should be held accountable for their negligence. There was a lack of fire extinguishers and safety measures inside the building, which was covered in highly flammable materials. Those who set off the fireworks should also be met with repercussions. The government is doing all it can.

Anti-China narrative

This report raises doubts about the future of the highly indebted Chinese property developer as fears of its collapse grow. With Hui's freedoms limited, the company may not survive long if the refinancing channel remains shut for a prolonged period. A failed Evergrande could spill over into other parts of the economy, leading to China's own Lehman-style crisis.

Pro-China narrative

While Western media keeps trying to promote Evergrande's case as if its potential collapse would negatively affect China's economic prospects, the fact is that such claims expose just how little they understand the Chinese development model. As Evergrande has engendered this crisis by not following Beijing's directions, the group must shoulder its responsibility without a bailout.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that China's GDP will be at least 17 trillion international dollars in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The recent coup attempt shows that certain forces want to prevent Burkina Faso from becoming a truly independent nation. The same applies to neighboring states such as Niger, which faces the threat of state collapse in the event of military intervention, as in Libya. For too long, Burkina Faso has suffered under the hypocrisy and domination of the West, which is now blocking the fight against Islamist terror. However, the people of Burkina Faso will continue to follow the chosen path of freedom and sovereignty.

Narrative B

So far, the junta in Burkina Faso has not provided any evidence for its claim of an intended coup in the country. On the other hand, it would not be a surprise, given that the new strongman Traoré himself came to power through a coup. Despite their claims to the contrary, the military government has failed to repel the jihadists, which increasingly undermines its legitimacy. Further coups are unlikely as long as Burkina Faso remains in a crisis.

Democratic narrative

The Republican debate was an embarrassing one, a product merely of chaos and hate. Furthermore, without the presence of the party's clear leader in the polls, the entire event can only be deemed pointless. With another primary debate scheduled for November in Miami, the right's painful march toward an election over a year away is set to drag on despite a lack of enthusiasm for anything Republicans have to offer.

Republican narrative

While the debate displayed a talented crop of candidates, only one can be a viable Trump opponent, which is why the GOP must stand behind a singular candidate. In all likeliness, the party must pick between Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, and move away from the sideshow of multiple inevitably unsuccessful candidates taking shots at each other and toward the meaningful policy discussion the GOP has to offer.

Pro-Trump narrative

While candidates for the best loser within the Republican Party attempted to criticize Trump's absence, the content of the debate itself merely proved why such a decision by the former president was wise. There will be no notable change in polling as a consequence of any candidate's performance, and there continues to be no need for Trump to show up to events promoting politicians that the American people don't take seriously.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Hundreds of years of Armenian history will soon be erased as Azerbaijan seeks to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to its indigenous Armenian population. The world, yet again, is watching in silence as long-dispossessed people are pushed out of their homeland.

Narrative B

Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This will dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war — Azerbaijan only seeks to live in harmony with its neighbors.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that the UN Security Council will adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before Oct. 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

While Ukraine is grateful for the West's supplies of weapons, these deliveries have been slow and often short of what the country needs to achieve battlefield breakthroughs to successfully push Russia out of all its territory. The West must not fall for Russia's fear-mongering and give Ukraine the weapons it needs to successfully achieve its aims.

Pro-Russia narrative

The West's ever-increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine are continually blurring the lines between indirect and direct involvement in the conflict. Not only does this drag out the conflict, making it more painful and agonizing for Ukraine, but also increases the prospects of a serious escalation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Now we know that microplastics are present in clouds. 10M tons of these plastic bits end up in the ocean, are released with sea spray, and find their way into the atmosphere. This suggests that microplastics may have become an essential component of clouds, contaminating nearly everything we eat and drink via "plastic rainfall," which could have major consequences for the environment and human health.

Narrative B

The effects of microplastics on human health are uncertain. While some studies have found a correlation between plastic consumption and certain health problems, others have not. Further study is needed to determine whether microplastics pose a threat to humans.

Pro-establishment narrative

Make no mistake, the DPRK's nuclear arsenal is not just a toy set Kim Jong Un plays with for his amusement; he may very well intend to deploy it against the US, South Korea, Japan, or other Western allies. If Kim continues his reckless pursuit of posturing on the global stage, he should understand that the leaders of the free world will respond in kind.

Establishment-critical narrative

The West's zero-sum approach toward North Korea has been a failure for almost the entire 21st century. The US can no longer demand complete denuclearization while simultaneously conducting military drills in Kim Jong Un's backyard. As the Korean War never officially ended and the DPRK is still an enemy of the US, Kim will continue to feel threatened until Washington decides to offer something more substantive.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

This farcical inquiry is a solution in search of a problem. Republicans are throwing out conspiracy theories and misinformation and hoping that these accusations turn out to be true. The least they could do is present actual facts from which to build their case, but they can’t seem to come up with any.

Republican narrative

We already know that Biden has changed his tune from saying he never spoke to his son about his business dealings to a more vague position that he was never “in business” with Hunter. So what else is the president hiding? That’s the purpose of this inquiry, to build off already accumulated evidence and — in the name of protecting the American people — holding the Bidens accountable for any criminality.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 25% chance that Biden will be impeached by the House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

One can never predict what the next revolutionary technology will be, or exactly how profound of an impact it will make, but a new device created by OpenAI and Jony Ive could have a monumental impact. The iPhone revolutionized the way the world used mobile phones and devices, but the market has largely plateaued as most of the world has already been exposed. OpenAI has taken the lead as the industry’s premier company.

Narrative B

While hyping up a potential device as the “smartphone of AI” is sure to provoke ideas of grandeur and wonder, this mystery device is still just an idea, and we are far away from any tangible product. At this point, there's only some vague idea of an invention. As we've learned from smartphones, tablets, and wearable tech, it also takes multiple iterations of breakthrough products to establish a reliable market for these devices. A robust market for a device like this will be a long way away.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Robin Hanson will win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate at least $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.