Macron Proposes 'Third Way' During Bangladesh Visit
On Monday, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron denounced "new imperialism" in the Asia-Pacific and proposed "a third way – with no intention to bully our partners or to lead them to an unsustainable scheme."
During his two-day visit to Bangladesh, Macron signed deals with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to facilitate loans for infrastructure development and provide Bangladesh with an earth observation satellite system.
The two leaders issued a joint statement expressing their willingness to advance the bilateral partnership to a strategic level as well as step up defense cooperation, including on non-traditional security issues.
Pro-China narrative
France's waning colonial influence in the Asia-Pacific has prompted Macron to desperately claim that PRC efforts to assist regional development amount to new imperialism as if they were similar to aggressive US moves. Such allegations are reminiscent of previous smear campaigns against China's international cooperation, revealing that Western powers unfairly judge Beijing by their standards.
Anti-China narrative
Under its long-standing foreign policy tradition of serving as a balancing power, France seeks to offer a viable alternative for countries not interested in the US-China zero-sum game in the Asia-Pacific. However, even if Paris has refrained from describing China as an adversary, France has used "naval diplomacy" to show Beijing that Chinese actions threaten its overseas national territories.
Nerd narrative
There's a 7% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US Sets Record ‘Billion-Dollar’ Disasters in 2023
On Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) reported that the US has so far this year experienced 23 climate catastrophes and weather events costing $1B or more each, breaking the previous record of 22 set in 2020.
The disasters — totaling $57.6B in damages and claiming 253 lives — included 18 instances of severe weather, two floods, one hurricane, one wildfire, and one winter storm, with the costliest disasters including Hurricane Idalia in Florida, wildfires in Hawaii, and 145 tornadoes in the central US over the course of two days.
Besides Hurricane Idalia and the Hawaii wildfires, which cost over $1B and $5.5B, respectively, other severe weather included a Minnesota hailstorm and storms in Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Biden administration has made bold commitments on climate and environmental justice, but halfway into his term, there are signs that he over-promised and under-delivered. In particular, there is little or no progress in accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. More must be done.
Pro-establishment narrative
While there's still a long way to go, Biden has made strong strides to address the climate issues From the Inflation Reduction Act to setting concrete goals, the US is well positioned to mitigate climate change — a crisis that can no longer be ignored or denied.
Narrative C
While climate change is an urgent issue, journalists and activists have an obligation to separate the facts from fiction and describe environmental problems honestly and accurately. The catastrophic framing of climate change does far more harm than good, not only by impacting the mental health of our youth but by alienating and polarizing large portions of the population.
Ukraine Claims to Retake Black Sea Drilling Rigs from Russia
Ukraine has recaptured four strategically important oil and gas drilling platforms located between Crimea and Odesa in the northwestern Black Sea, the country's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced on Monday.
The GUR stated that Ukrainian special forces had retaken the drilling platforms, collectively known as the "Boyko Towers," in a "unique operation." Russia had previously seized the Towers in 2015, a year after annexing Crimea.
During the operation, there was a clash between Ukrainian special forces on boats and a Russian fighter jet, which the agency claimed was damaged and forced to retreat. The GUR also claimed to have captured Russian helicopter munitions and a radar system that could track the movement of ships in the Black Sea.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
This well-executed operation wasn't just unique, but had extremely significant consequences for Ukraine. These platforms control valuable hydrocarbon resources and can be used as forward deployment bases, helipads, and potential sites for long-range missile systems.
Pro-Russia narrative
In a late-August attempt to shuttle Ukrainian forces in positions near Crimea, Russia's Black Sea Fleet destroyed four high-speed military boats and killed as many as 50 men. Ukraine's claims that it recaptured Black Sea drilling platforms from Russia are fabricated.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Poland Refuses to Lift Embargo on Ukrainian Grain
Poland will not lift its embargo on imports of Ukrainian grain, irrespective of what the European Commission decides later this week, the country's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Tuesday.
"Poland will not allow Ukrainian grain to flood us," Morawiecki announced on X, adding: "Regardless of the decisions of the clerks in Brussels, we will not open up our borders."
Morawiecki added that he had called on the EU to extend the ban on the entry of Ukrainian grain, or else, "we will do it ourselves because we can't allow for a deregulation of the market."
Narrative A
Poland has helped Ukraine tremendously over the last several months, providing it with weapons and accepting its refugees. However, the latest developments suggest that the honeymoon period is regrettably coming to an end. Ukraine has no choice but to challenge Poland's decision, which reflects a failure to show solidarity with its neighbor amid an overarching military threat to Europe.
Narrative B
The influx of Ukraine's grain in Polish markets has decreased prices and negatively affected farmers' ability to make a living. Poland continues to support Ukraine, but its primary duty must be to protect its own national economy and the interests of its people.
Nerd narrative
There's a 14% chance that Poland's GDP per capita (in USD) will exceed that of the United Kingdom before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Cobalt, Copper Mining in DRC Leads to Human Rights Abuses
In a joint report published Tuesday, Amnesty International and the Initiative for Good Governance and Human Rights (IBGDH) warned that the expansion of cobalt and copper mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to forced evictions and severe human rights abuses.
According to the report, a majority of cobalt mining is done by "artisanal" workers, or freelance miners, who work in dangerous conditions for minimal pay. Cobalt is a product used in the manufacturing of rechargeable batteries used to power smartphones, computers, and electric vehicles.
The materials, valued in the billions of dollars, are mined by men, women, and children with their bare hands in toxic and extremely dangerous pits, author and Harvard academic Siddharth Kara reported in a separate exposé.
Narrative A
Global activists may be quick to boycott products made with cobalt sourced through artisanal small-scale (ASM) mining, but it's often impossible to tell the difference between ASM-mined cobalt and ethically sourced cobalt. It's up to the companies making products that require cobalt to ensure responsible mining operations that support local communities and guarantee just conditions for workers.
Narrative B
Report after report has revealed the dangers and destruction that ASM mining is causing in the DRC. Increased demand has caused the ever-expanding industry to inflict even more suffering in the DRC. While companies must be at the forefront of combatting this, it will take a multifaceted and international effort to ensure responsible mining is taking place.
Cynical narrative
Exploitation and suffering in the DRC are nothing new, as the origins of these sordid practices go all the way back to the colonial period, in which the Belgians ruthlessly extracted resources from the country via incredibly brutal methods. Indeed, the current exploitation of the DRC is just another facet of contemporary imperialism and neocolonialism, as foreign powers and large corporations continue to extract the DRC's precious resources at the expense of the country's local population.
Dutch Art Detective Recovers Stolen Van Gogh
A 139-year-old Van Gogh painting stolen from the Singer Laren museum in the Dutch town of Laren has been returned following the work of Dutch art detective Arthur Brand.
The painting, named The Parsonage Garden at Nuenen in Spring, is worth between €3M-€6M (US$3.2M-$6.4 M). The painting was returned to Brand in a blue Ikea bag from an individual whose name has not been revealed.
Brand, who has been previously termed the "Indiana Jones of the Art World," described the recovery of the painting as "one of the greatest moments of my life." The detective worked alongside Dutch police on the case.
Narrative A
Theft has remained a consistent problem in the art world since the dawn of civilization and spans from museums to art galleries to private collections. With the art market's value continuing to grow, the incentives to steal and engage in "art laundering" are only becoming more enticing. Enhanced security systems and improved legal protocols must be implemented if we are ever to see any change.
Narrative B
Art theft is a major crime, but it's immensely hard to sell a stolen masterpiece after a heist. If art thieves realized how hard it was to sell what they had stolen there would be far fewer art thefts in the world. This genre of larceny is not a cost-effective activity for most criminals.
Trump Asks Judge to Recuse Herself in Election Subversion Case
Lawyers representing former US Pres. Donald Trump on Monday asked US District Judge Tanya Chutkan — who is overseeing his federal election subversion case in Washington, DC — to recuse herself, saying her past public statements about the former president compromise her impartiality.
The filing cites comments Chutkan made in a case she heard in October 2022 involving a Jan. 6 defendant, as well as a case she heard in December 2021 – statements the filing argues are “inherently disqualifying."
In one case, Chutkan called Jan. 6 "nothing less than an attempt to violently overthrow the government, the legally, lawfully, peacefully elected government, by individuals who were mad that their guy lost.” She later added, "it's blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day."
Democratic narrative
This is just another case of Trump’s legal team throwing things against the wall to see what might stick in an attempt to delay legal proceedings from moving forward. Trump has filed recusal requests in other cases as well. Any judge with experience is going to have rulings and statements on weighty matters, but that doesn’t preclude them from being impartial. These stall tactics won’t work for long.
Pro-Trump narrative
An Obama-appointed judge like Chutkan should never have been allowed anywhere near this case in the first place. Her past comments aren’t just indicative of someone who’s biased against Trump and thinks the former president should be imprisoned, they mischaracterize the events of Jan. 6 — a sign of her left-leaning bias. She should recuse herself.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 50% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UN: Colombia Sets New Cocaine Production Record
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime stated in a report released on Monday that the estimated cocaine output in Colombia — the world's biggest producer of the drug — increased by 24% in 2022, soaring to 1,738 tons and setting a new record high.
This comes as satellite images showed the area cultivated with coca leaf, the raw material for refined cocaine, rose to 230K hectares (roughly 570K acres) last year in the country.
Nearly two-thirds of the coca crops are reportedly grown in the provinces of Nariño and Putumayo, along the border with Ecuador, as well as in North Santander, on the Venezuelan border.
Left narrative
The decades-long war on drugs has completely failed to stop the flow of cocaine, as huge profits encourage drug trafficking gangs to adapt their smuggling methods to prevent law enforcement as well as to boost their productivity. As global production soars and the world gets awash with cocaine, it's evident that full-on decriminalization might be the only way to stem the violence.
Right narrative
Given that the international community has adhered to a unified drug prohibition approach, Petro has been dangerously putting Colombia on the brink of becoming a narco-state by changing the course of the war on drugs. Legalizing the cocaine trade in the country will have negative security implications not only for Colombia but for the entire hemisphere.
TikTok Shop Launches in US
TikTok’s e-commerce service, TikTok Shop, has officially launched in the US, the company announced in a blog post Tuesday, as it looks to bring online shopping to its 150M American users.
The popular social media platform has been testing its online marketplace since August and has added a “Shop Tab” to its app. It has also put affiliate videos in user feeds that will allow creators to earn commissions from products and created a logistics arm called Fulfilled by TikTok.
TikTok spokesperson Laura Perez says more than 200K sellers have already registered for TikTok Shop, while 100K content creators have joined an affiliate program that allows users with 5K followers to create videos that will be pushed into TikTok’s “For You” feed.
Narrative A
TikTok is one of the most powerful social media platform in the world, and it is the future of any industry it chooses to enter. TikTok Shop will change the landscape of e-commerce since it has the built-in access to Gen Z that many other platforms lack. It has carefully ironed out the logistics to create an e-commerce platform that is easy to use and links buyers and sellers like never before.
Narrative B
TikTok Shop might not be the smashing success many anticipate it to be as there are many kinks the company needs to iron out before it can fully take advantage of its large pool of users. While it may be growing amongst certain groups, social commerce doesn’t account for a large percentage of total online shopping sales, and it could take quite some time for it to be a dominant part of e-commerce.
McCarthy Announces Impeachment Inquiry Against Biden
On Tuesday, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) announced that the House Oversight, Judiciary, and Ways and Means committees will lead a formal impeachment inquiry against Pres. Joe Biden.
McCarthy said Republicans, who have a slim majority in the House, will "go where the evidence takes us." McCarthy also described evidence of a "culture of corruption" surrounding the president and his son, Hunter.
A White House spokesperson called McCarthy’s announcement "extreme politics at its worst" and noted that, after a nine-month investigation, Republicans have found no evidence of "wrongdoing" by the president.
Democratic narrative
This disruptive political stunt is just an abuse of McCarthy’s power and an usurpation of the will of the people. If this inquiry had the support of even half the House, McCarthy would’ve put it to a vote. Months of investigation have turned up nothing to implicate the president, but the far-right members of the GOP would rather distract from the real work they have to get done by stirring up more conspiracy theories about Pres. Biden and his son.
Republican narrative
This is a legitimate investigation based on evidence uncovered by House committees of a pattern of the Biden family enriching itself through mysterious means while Biden was vice president. An impeachment inquiry will allow Congress to access even more information so it can make an educated decision. Biden and the Democrats should stop denigrating the impeachment process and instead cooperate to prove the president's innocence.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 25% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.